A-O Intelligence Digest: 6-11-13
The A-O Intelligence Digest
June 11, 2013
Special Mideast Situation Report
Shades of 1967 in Israel
There has been a tidal shift of geo-political power in the Middle East and most of the Western World is not yet cognizant of this shift. The shift comes as the Syrian Civil War winds down. As the month of June began, forces loyal to Syrian President Assad's regime finished a campaign culminating in the destruction of the last rebel base of operations at al-Qusayr in northern Syria.
Without the al-Qusayr base, Syrian rebels are now cut-off from being re-supplied with ammunition, food, water and weapons. The rebel ranks were decimated in this latest campaign. As we understand the situation, the Syrian rebels have been routed and are scattered with only pockets of resistance left across Syria. As of June 6, the Assad regime's forces are apparently left with only mop-up operations. Assad's victory is due, in large measure, to allied assistance from Hezbollah and Iranian troop reinforcements that have been pouring into Syria this year, particularly in the last two months. Of course, Russian aid has also been a vital factor.
The battle for al-Qusayr is now over and Assad, his regime leadership is seething for a chance to turn their attention towards the Israeli border and the Golan Heights region. Syrian leadership is seeking revenge for past Israeli airstrikes against Syrian targets this year.
Syrian infantry and tanks are now moving south towards the Golan area and preparing to take up attack positions. Syrian forces not assigned to mop up duty against the rebels are moving south accompanied by Iranian and Hezbollah forces, including tanks manned by Hezbollah soldiers.
President Assad and Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah have previously voiced their intentions to conduct offensive operations in the Golan Heights region with the goal of retaking that region lost to Israeli in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Iranian leadership in Tehran is in favor of a war of attrition against Israel along Israel's northern border and Assad is ready to oblige. The Syrians are still smarting from the spanking handed to them by the Israeli Air Force last January and again at the first of May.
The atmosphere within the Israeli population is one of grim anticipation of a military clash, sooner or later along its northern border. Israeli Civil Defense authorities conducted a large missile defense drill last week in anticipation that an outbreak of hostilities will include attacks of large, ballistic missiles raining down on Israeli cities including Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and even Eilat to the far south. One Israeli news outlet published an article the other day describing the atmosphere and comparing it to the days just before the Summer War of 2006 and before the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Some of our own, older sources however compare the atmosphere of inevitability to the days prior to the 6-Day War of June, 1967.
How can this be?
Let's examine 20 existing factors suggesting a prelude to coming major war:
Major War Clouds Gathering:
1. Syrian Civil War Winding Down as Assad Defeats the Rebels
2. Extra Hezbollah & Syrian Troops Moving Towards Golan Hts Area
3. Russian Arms Shipments Pour In
a. Anti-Ship Missiles
b. Iskander Cruise Missiles
c. Small-arms ammunition
4. Russian Sale of:
a. Air Defense Systems
b. Advance Warplanes
5. Russian Elite Troop Movements For Rapid Deployment
6. Russian Naval Build Up in Medit
7. Continued Concerns of Hezbollah Receiving Hi-Tech Arms
8. Muslim Volunteers Pouring into Syria for war on Israel
g. North Korean Troops
h. Kurds from Syria, Turkey, Iraq
9. Elite Iranian Troops in Syria
10. Iranian Missile Launcher Deployments
11. Iran's Nuclear Program Accelerating
12. Iranian Delegation to N. Korea to Purchase 3 Nukes
13. Iranian warships stationed in Medit & Red Seas
14. Pullout of Major US Naval Forces
15. US Positioning Patriot Air Defenses in Jordan & Israel
16. US Marines for 2-month Drill in Jordan on Syrian Border
17. Civil Strife in Turkey - Regime Change Possible
18. Syrian Use of Chemical Weapons on Rebels
19. Syrian Missiles Pointed at Israeli Cities
20. Russian Cruise Missiles Deployed in Armenia
Additional factors may come into play shortly, including:
#1 Egyptian radicals forcing the Egyptian Army to joining an Arab Campaign against Israel
#2.Islamic radicals in Libya have taken control of the government and may join in a war against Israel
#3. Islamic radicals in Somalia, Ethiopia and elsewhere in Africa's interior may supply additional volunteer fighters in a war against Israel.
#4. The potential for “regime change” in Turkey is growing. Turkey could become a wild-card and join a Muslim campaign to wipe out Israel.
#5. Regime Change in Saudi Arabia!!! - King Abdullah's health is failing rapidly now. There are reports that the King's health is so bad that he is incapacitated. Iranian news media had reported the King's death prematurely but it was based on factual reports of King's deterioration. Late word is that the 89 year old King has flown to Morocco for a “private visit.” The King has a palace in Casablanca. The Crown Prince is also reportedly now suffering from failing health and dementia and is unqualified to take over the government after the king's death. Sooner or later, Saudi Royal family is destined for a battle over the royal throne. Such a battle could lead to a efforts by Iran or Al Qaeda to stage a successful coup and remove the royal family from control. Even if the Royals retain control, the Royals may be forced by a sweeping tide of Muslim patriotism to join in a war against Israel, if for nothing else, to pre-empt Iran from taking on a global leadership mantle in the Islamic world.
#6. Central Asian Muslim republics that were once part of the Soviet Union have been showing increasing signs of hostility towards Israel. Some of these might also join in any sort of extended military campaign against Israel.
All in all, the pieces on the chessboard are moving into positions suggesting a culmination that leads to fulfillment of Ezekiel's Gog-Magog War prophecies. At the same time, such events may intertwine with the Babylon prophecies of Jeremiah 51 and the destruction of Babylon-America.
It is not our intention to predict such events. We only note the potential is growing for the possibility of such events. How soon? Preliminary actions, such as small-scale war of attrition could commence within the next 30 to 60 days. Yet it may not start until later. Iran may wish to hold things off until it has its “ducks in a row,” particularly related to having some nuclear weapons in its arsenal. I don't think Iran wants anything major to erupt until it has its own nuclear weapons to work with. We've not heard any follow up reports concerning an Iranian delegation visiting North Korea with the intent to finalize the purchase of 3 nuclear missile warheads from North Korea. If that effort was successful, we still suspect it will take some time (several months?) for the two nations to secretly ship those weapons into Iranian territory and make them operable.
What to Expect Next?
We anticipate that before anything else, Assad and his allies will finish the job of mopping up rebel resistance in Aleppo, western and northern Syria. Assad and Hezbollah will consolidate their positions by forcing the Syrian and Lebanese Christian Druze population to pledge allegiance to Assad's regime.
At the same time, Iraq has positioned 20,000 troops along its border with Syria, sealing off the border to prevent Al Qaeda fighters from fleeing into their former bases in Iraq. Iraqi commando squads have been conducting incursions into eastern Syria, with Assad's blessing, in order to flush out the remaining pockets of Al Qaeda fighters. Just weeks ago, the Al Qaeda forces had boasted of having seized the oil fields in eastern Syria. They no longer have such control. In fact, they seem to have completely vanished from Syria.
So, once the mop-up operations are completed, perhaps within one to four weeks (?) we can expect the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance to turn its guns towards Israel. In fact, at the end of last week, Syrian rebels attempted to seize a border-crossing checkpoint manned by the Syrian Army. Fighting spilled over into the Israeli side for awhile before the remaining rebels escaped into the countryside.
The Golan fighting was so intense that the UN Peacekeeping force consisting of 377 Austrian troops evacuated the area and over the weekend the Austrian government announced the troops were being pulled out and returning home.
The departure of the Austrian peacekeeping forces left the UN without any available peacekeepers from other nations. This prompted Russian President Putin to volunteer an elite Russian special forces team to take control of the Golan region. The Russian government made the offer to the UN Security Council which rejected the offer on the basis of UN rules which forbid
troops from any of the 5 permanent security council member nations from providing peacekeeping forces to the Golan Height region. You would think this would have been the end of it, right? WRONG!
President Putin sought to overcome the UN rejection by calling Prime Minister Netanyahu and giving the Israeli leader a “sales pitch” on why Israel should want Russian peacekeeping troops in the Golan region. The essence of the Russian leaders telemarketing sales pitch was that it was in Israel's interest for Assad to remain in power, with Russian assistance, to prevent Al Qaeda and Islamic radicals from taking over Syria and triggering a blood war with Israel. Russian troops on the Golan would help keep Assad in power and prevent any Syrian efforts to make war on Israel.
Furthermore, the Russian leader explained once again to Netanyahu that the primary reason for Russia's support of Assad was to prevent Syria from becoming another Taliban-type nation that would foment civil war within Russia and Russia's Islamic neighboring nations. In other words, Putin believed that saving Assad was a matter of Russian national security.
Netanyahu wasn't buying the Russian's sales pitch for Russian peacekeepers in the Golan. The Prime Minister stated that it was not in Israel's interests to rely upon other nations for Israel's national security.
Putin refused to take Netanyahu's refusal to heart. As this week began, the Russian leader contacted Syria's Assad and twisted Assad into publicly asking the Russian leader for Russian troops to intercede and man the border region of the Golan Heights.
The Russian force is now being readied for deployment into the Golan along with Russian MI-24 assault helicopters. The unit has been dubbed with the name: The Russian Golan Brigade.
Now here's what's really an eye-popping development in all of this. Moscow announced that the legal basis for the troop placement was under the aegis of the CSTO, aka “Collective Security Treaty Organization. The CSTO is a Russian-led organization, similar to NATO, but consisting of Central Asian nations for the purpose of combating terrorism. Member nations contributing troops are: Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Uzbekistan is also a member but no troops from than nation are believed to be involved in the Golan Heights deployment.
Why is this development so eye-popping?
For Biblical Prophecy watchers, we recognize that this group consists of a huge chunk of the Gog-Magog alliance of nations which make war on Israel at some future point. The CSTO may be what Ezekiel references as related to as the Land of Magog along with Meshech and Tubal. Ezekiel indicates in 38: 2 that Gog is connected to the Land of Magog and Gog is related to these two tribal names.
It seems that today, the majority of contemporary prophecy commentators believe that Gog and Magog is a reference to modern-day Russia, while others believe it is Turkey and some Jewish rabbinical commentators cite ancient rabbinical writings claiming the Land of Magog is what is now portions of eastern Iran, southwestern Afghanistan and western Pakistan.
The location of Meshech is also confusing and perhaps convoluted. Some modern-day commentators think Meshech is a phonetic reference to Moscow and Tubal is a reference to Tobalsk. Yet, almost ALL modern-day linguists reject such notions as ludicrous and preposterous.
There are areas of modern-day Turkey bearing the name of Meshech and Tubal as well as the names Gomer and Togarmah, (listed in 38:6) although the tribes did colonize portions of modern-day Russia and the steppes region of central Asia.
It is entirely possible that Magog and Gomer then encompass portions of modern-day Turkey, particularly the Kurdish tribal mountain regions of eastern and southeastern Turkey. Togarmah would be areas of what is now modern-day Armenia and perhaps portions of Chechnya well as Russia, and other nations of central Asia as mentioned in the CSTO group.
However there are other soldiers from other nations which Ezekiel mentions as being part of the alliance in Ezekiel 38: 5. Those other nations include:
1. Parac/Persia/Modern-day Iran (possibly including portions of Pakistan & Afghanistan.
2. Puwt/Phut/ an area of northern Africa thought to be modern-day Libya, although there are scholars who question that notion and point to Ezekiel's reference to Put as being supporters of Tyre (Phoenicia/Lebanon).
3. Kush/Cush/ the name of the father of Nimrod (founder of Babylon). The land of Cush was vast. It was thought to include the Mesopotamian river valleys of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. It also included portions of the Arabian Peninsula and to the west, the Nile River valley including Egypt as also the sub-Sahara region of Africa including nations such as Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan.
Let's review that list of the Gog-Magog alliance in 38:5 once again using the modern-day national names involved.
***** Iran and perhaps Pakistan, Afghanistan or volunteers (terrorists) from those nations.
***** Libya or Lebanon – more than likely a reference to Hezbollah
***** Iraq/Babylonia, Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan (all hotbeds of radical Islam).
In regards to Iraq/Babylonia, Iraq now has 20,000 soldiers stationed along its border with Syria. Their mission is to prevent Syrian Al Qaeda rebels from crossing into Iraq and re-starting a civil war in Iraq. Radical Islamist terrorists, many allied with Iran are located in Somalia, Ethiopia and the Sudan. Meanwhile, Al Qaeda operates in the Arabian Peninsula, particularly Yemen. The Muslim Brotherhood now controls Egypt and seeks the elimination of Israel.
When you stop and add up all of these groups and then combine them with the Russian CSTO military resources, you can see just what a vast alliance of power could well be arrayed against Israel in Ezekiel's prophecies. It is a vast alliance far, far greater than anything Israel has ever faced before. Of course, given Russia's military technology advantages and the numerical superiority, Israel simply will not have a fighting chance as it stands alone, except for ONE ally, The Lord God of Israel, Creator-Ruler of the Universe. Israel will survive and be victorious but only through supernatural, Divine intervention. Even so, Israel will likely suffer immense devastation prior to the Divine intervention.
What we can say is that with each passing day, the world is marching towards a major military clash in the Middle East that will surpass any previous Mideast war in size and scope. Russia's sudden intrusion into the Middle East should simply heighten our awareness of the prophetic implications and the nearness of our Lord's impending Return as the Birthpangs of the Messiah intensify.