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Israel’s Political Crisis

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(AO Newswire) -- Israel’s Labor Party leader and Defense Minister, Ehud Barak has called on Israeli Prime Minister Olmert to either resign, or temporarily suspend himself from the duties of the office of Prime Minister. Barak’s call for Olmert to step down triggered a blistering response from the Prime Minister’s office. Indicating that Prime Minister Olmert is not yet ready to resign or step aside as he had earlier promised. Of course, Olmert’s promise to step aside was conditioned on the basis of an indictment. To date, nor indictment has been announced.

Barak’s call for resignation has been joined by Prime Minister Olmert’s Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni who many think will be tapped to replace Olmert as head of the 2-year old Kadima Party, founded by Ariel Sharon not long before his massive stroke that left him as a “vegetable.”

The crisis stems from new corruption allegations by an American rabbi who has now testified that he gave Olmert $150,000 dollars in recent years before Olmert became Prime Minister.

Labor Leader Barak’s call for resignation was far less than other political opponents had wanted. Other opposition leaders along with many in the Labor Party wanted Barak to call for a disbanding of the government and seek new, emergency elections. Their reasoning is that Olmert has no mandate to govern. Opinion polls show Olmert’s public support has dwindled to just 3%.  Yes, that is not a typographical error. Olmert’s support is down to just three lonely percentage points.

Opposition parties believe the Olmert’s Kadima Party, a newly formed party by Olmert’s predecessor, Ariel Sharon is doomed to extinction and all remaining political parties stand to pick up political strength with its demise in a future election. The thinking is a that Livni, a young, attractive Israeli woman might be able to rally voter support to the Party to retain its leadership role in the Knesset and thus retain the Prime Ministership.

There is also concern that should Olmert remain in office, he will attempt to negotiate a bad peace agreement with Israel’s neighbors, notably Syria. There is also concern that he might not order military action against Iran’s nuclear program if the need arises or if he should that he might bungle the attempt by fettering the military’s freedom to act. There is also growing concern that his souring relationship with the White House will further hurt Israel economically and militarily. This last aspect is an issue addressed in the latest A-O Intelligence Digest.

It should be noted however, that Prime Minister Olmert has survived four previous criminal investigations without indictment. It is entirely possible that Olmert, the wily politician that he has proven to be will somehow manage to survive this latest political crisis, but this time, the odds seemed to heavily stacked against him. Even now, rumors are swirling in Israel that new criminal accusations are surfacing, suggesting even more criminal probes may develop. It is hard to see how Olmert could survive, especially if such further allegations prompt more investigations and or if Olmert is indicted.

Olmert has stated that if he is indicted he will resign, however, some Israeli pundits note that he has made similar promises before and failed to keep them, most notably, the promise to resign if the Winograd Report presented him in a negative light for mismanagement of the 2006 summer war with Hezbollah. That report did harshly criticize Olmert, yet Olmert refused to follow through on his promise to resign.

Late indications from Israeli news media reports suggest that Olmert is now attempting to orchestrate a prolonged but graceful exit as Prime Minister.

There is serious talk and widespread rumors that Olmert is considering a move to allow a Kadima Party Primary to select his replacement. Such talks indicate a primary selection date for sometime in September. It may then lead to early general elections, perhaps in 2009.

We’ll just have to wait and see how this all develops, but Israel’s political crisis may well prompt some sort of security threat to Israel this summer or fall if Olmert remains in office. More details, LINK HERE.

Olmert Responds - LINK

Primary Rumors -- LINK

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