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Iran Confronts US Navy In Gulf

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Analysis

01-07-08

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(A-O Newswire) -- The naval incident between Iranian patrol boats and US naval warships sends a signal that whatever secret agreement was arranged between the US and Iran regarding Iran’s nuclear weapons program may be a broken agreement that will lead eventually to hostilities between the two nations.

As we’ve reported in previous intelligence reports at the end of December and again with our 01-07-08 Intelligence Digest Report, there was an alleged secret agreement being worked out between the US and Iran and brokered by Saudi Arabia. We’ve reported on signs at the end of December indicating that Iran was reneging on its end of the bargain while reaping the benefits of the US National Intelligence Estimate published on December 3, which indicated that Iran’s nuclear weapons program had been halted in 2003 and had remained dormant since that time.

That NIE report cleared the way for the agreement to go forward which would allow the Iranians to secretly continue with its clandestine nuclear weapons program without further interference from Washington, as long as Iran kept its part of the bargain to assist the US in certain foreign policy objectives including the end of hostilities in Iraq and the subsequent partition of Iraq into 3 separate states as well as Iranian cooperation in resolving the turmoil in Lebanon and not attempting to interfere with a peace treaty between Israel and her neighbors. Another condition was that Iran would also assist in halting the turmoil in Pakistan by halting Iranian supplies and weapons to radical groups in Pakistan.

As we’ve noted in the most recent Digest report, Iran has taken new and provocative steps to bolster its military defenses and announced it would build nearly 2 dozen more nuclear power plants in the coming years.  Such a plan would enable to build numerous nuclear weapons annually once those plants became operational.  The renewed turmoil in Pakistan after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto also reveals Iran’s continuing involvement in the turmoil of that nation thus abrogating the secret agreement reached with Washington.

The latest naval incident sends a sharp signal that Iran is basically thumbing its nose at the U.S. In other words, Iran suckered the White House into an agreement to which the Iranians had no intention of honoring or upholding.

Instead, the Iranians are showing their true intentions – to continue to oppose the US in the Mideast. Why?

The Iranians believe that they have publicly out maneuvered the US in the diplomatic realm. They assume that the NIE Report conclusion about Iran’s nuclear weapons program means that Bush’s hands are now tied and cannot engage Iran in a military conflict that could destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

The Iranians perceive the US as weak and incapable of attacking Iran because of its diplomatic position which they assume would result in a world backlash against the United States. Indeed they perceive the backlash would be so severe as to cause serious harm to US National Security.

Furthermore, the Iranians believe that the US realizes that in the event of open hostilities, US military forces in Iraq could be overwhelmed by Iraqi Shiites and Iranian Revolutionary Guards invading Iraq.  The Iranians confidently assume that US naval power could be effectively destroyed by new Iranian anti-ship missiles and thus the Iranians believe that they could inflict a humiliating naval defeat on the US and annihilate US ground forces in Iraq. In other words, they believe they could inflict a wholesale bloodbath on US forces in Iraq.

The Iranians also assume that the US would not, under such dire circumstances launch a massive nuclear strike on Iran because it would trigger a nuclear world war in which huge amounts of the world’s oil reserves would become radioactive and forever unusable, thrusting the world’s technology backwards by 100 years and back into the horse and buggy era.  They believe that the Western World and the US simply couldn’t risk such potential results.

In drawing such conclusions, the Iranians feel that they have the upper hand and are free to trigger such incidents as a way of demonstrating to the Arab world, American impotence.

In demonstrating America’s impotence, Iran thus scares their neighbors into cooperating further with Iran and persuade those neighbors to no longer trust America for their protection from Iran.

The fact that this latest incident was an “in-your-face” gesture against America which resulted in no action taken by America, is seen as further evidence of Iranian capabilities to project power and US impotence and lack of power and resolve.

It also serves to remind neighboring countries that the Iranians are a force to be reckoned with in terms of who ships what in and out of the Persian Gulf because at any time, Iran could simply block the Straits to oil tanker traffic.

The incident strongly suggests that the ultra-radicals have regained the upper hand within the Iranian halls of power after briefly being forced into a corner.  This means the radicals intend to continue to challenge and provoke the United States in 2008. It is as if, the Iranian ultra-radicals led by President Ahmadinejad are begging the United States to make a military move against Iran.

Do not be surprised if a similar future incident transpires that triggers a hostile exchange of gunfire on the high seas of the Persian Gulf. Should such an incident occur, we may yet witness broader military conflict between Iran and the United States.

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