AO Intel Digest


We've been holding off on filing this digest because our flow of intelligence has been both spotty and contradictory with little or no direction as to how or where things are headed in the near-term. This log-jam seems to be giving way to a directional flow that we can understand and assimilate into a coherent commentary.

Immediate Concern: Syria


The most immediate area of concern is of course the Syrian civil war and the potential for this to mushroom into
a regional or world war.


Latest Developments out of Syria:


Rebels Continue Intense Pressure on Damascus

Rebels Press on Syrian Chemical & Missile Bases

U.S. & NATO Moves Patriot Batteries To Turkey

U.S. Withdraws Naval Presence from Syrian Waters

Russia Re-supplies Syria with Weapons

Fears of WMD Missile Attacks Remain

US Admits Syrian WMDs Inventory Bigger Than Estimated

Muslim Allies Now Mistrust Obama

Iran Cancels Summit With Turkey


Comments:

Rebel Gains & WMDs

Syrian rebels continue to pressure the Syrian army on the ground as rebels pressue the government's defense of Damascus. The Damascus airport remains contested and operations at the airport remain highly curtailed.

Radical Muslim elements aligned with Al Qaeda continue their pursuit to capture Syrian WMD stockpiles and nearby Scud missiles. The radical rebel attack on those bases prompted the regime to order the launch of Scud missiles against the rebels approaching WMD warehouses. The missile attacks purportedly including some mustard gas.

Rebel forces reportedly captured one weapons depot that purportedly housed some of the Army's chemical weapons, but the rebels reported that no such weapons were found on the site. Apparently the Syrian Army had managed to withdraw the stockpiles in advance of the rebel seizure. There were reports that rebels had captured a stockpile of chemical weapons including missiles loaded with chemical weapons warheads. Such reports have apparently proven to be false, like so many other convoluted stories coming out of Syria. The truth is often the first casualty of war.

It remains unclear as to the status of the Syrian government's stash of WMDs, but a report late last week by US intelligence agencies to the Defense Secretary indicated that apparently dozens of chemical warheads have been activated, much more than had been initially estimated, but again this has not been absolutely verifiable.

 
Assad's Treachery?

Intelligence service reports surfaced earlier this month indicating the distinct possibility that some of Assad's
WMD inventories had been transferred to Hezbollah. The key word to such news is "possible." Nothing is certain and nothing has been verifiable, just raised suspicions. Israeli leaders have stated in the past that this
is a "red line" for Israel. Should Assad make such an attempt, Israel would not only intervene but likely consider it an act of war and declare war on Syria as well as taking action against Hezbollah.

The suspicions of such activity were based upon observations of truck transports moving from Syria into Hezbollah territory in Lebanon. There were some alternate reports of Hezbollah forces visiting an area in Syria where chemical weapons may have been transported to intermediate points from WMD storage depots.

There were additional reports that Assad had turned over dissassembled SCUD missiles to Hezbollah. Such
reports have also been unconfirmed and unable to be verified. Here again, Israel has previously conveyed to
Assad that the transfer of ballistic (SCUD) missiles to Hezbollah would be considered an act of war by Israel
and would result in Israeli military action. If such a development has occurred, Israel has not been able to
verify it to take appropriate action.


Western Intervention?

As December unfolded, speculation mounted in whirlwind of rumors that the U.S., NATO and Arab allies would mount a ground, air and naval intervention in the Syrian conflict. In November, as word of Syrian WMD activity surfaced, Turkey petitioned to NATO a request for Patriot anti-air defense batteries as a defense against potential Syrian WMD missile attacks. NATO officials deferred on the matter to Washington and the White House agreed to the request. A total of 10 Patriot batteries would be assigned to the Turkish-Syrian border.
Some units would come from Germany, others from the Netherlands and I believe Britain also agreed to assist.
The White House finally announced its committment of Patriot batteries last week along with 400 US personnel to operate the units.

As Patriot units began arriving, last week, Russia and China privately voiced concern and disapproval. Russia was most concerned that the move was simply a ploy to eventually become a threat to Russian national security interests. Of course the real Russian concern was not that such a defensive weapon would be used against Russia in an attack on Russia, but rather that such placements would make it harder for Russia to counter-attack should it so desire, in the event NATO & Arab nations invade Syria.

Iran also objected to the Patriot batteries, but initially the objections seemed rather muted. Only in the last couple of day, the chief commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps warned that the presence of Patriot batteries would trigger a world war. Such a statement was rather bold and seemingly illogical but it
indicates the Iranian patience is wearing thin and are becoming emboldened to take action to save their ally, President Assad.

Of course the Iranians realize that a Syrian capitulation would leave Iran's northern flank exposed and vulnerable to serious military attacks from Israel and or the U.S. It would also mean that Iran's proxy force in Lebanon, Hezbollah would be isolated and vulnerable to eradication by Israel. In all reality, Iranian military strategists realize, that despite propaganda claims to the contrary, Israel's military has the capability to wipe out Hezbollah if Israeli leaders decided to wage "total war" and take-off the kid gloves.

Iranian strategists have no doubt realized the Western strategy calls for dismantling Iran's proxies and allies in Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria. Once isolated, and without any allies, Iran will find itself at the mercy of a powerful military alliance that would eradicate the Islamic religious radical regime in Tehran and replace it with a thoroughly secular government. The dirty, ground work would be done by primarily Arab ground forces that would likely include Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and some Kuwaiti units as well as the might of the Turkish and Pakistani forces. Iran's Revolutionary Guards would be so far outnumbered and out-classed that an invasion
would not take long to topple the government, which is already unpopular with the general masses.

Recognizing this threat, the IRGC strategists are conveying the threat to the regime's ruling elite and urging the necessity of doing everything possible to keep their Syrian ally in power. At this time, there are rumbling indications out of Tehran that Iran may widen its role and risk all-out war in its defense of President Assad's regime. It is most likely that Assad's steadfastness to remain in power is fueled in large measure by Tehran's
intent to do whatever is necessary to keep Assad in power.

Iran's Resolve Stymies White House Policies

Iran's resolute support of Assad may be playing a factor in President Obama's decisions regarding the Middle East policies. The President's Mideast policies are in shambles thanks to Iran. White House miscalculations in dealing with Iran is creating a future nightmare scenario for the U.S., Israel and the world as a whole.

President Obama assumed office with the idea of "leading from behind." It is an approach that is leading to disaster after disaster. We've seen that already in the Benghazi terror attack. We've also seen it in the Arab Srping movement and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, supported by Obama. It's also evident that such a role has put Israel in peril, but then perhaps that is what Obama has intended all along. The Gaza mini-war
has been something of a 'wash' in the short run but from a long-term perspective it will ultimately haunt Israel
unless Iran is dealt with sooner rather than later.

As for the Syrian situation, President Obama's "leadership from behind" is proving to be another disaster in the making for American and Israeli national security.

As December began, it appeared that the WMD threat would force the White House into taking direct military action. The Pentagon anticipated the need for a military move and as such persuaded the White House to take certain military moves, particularly naval placements. A Navy super-carrier strike group (USS Eisenhower) briefly steamed off the Syrian coast joined by a US Navy amphibious carrier group (USS Iwo Jima) but by mid-month, the President ordered all US naval presence removed from the Syrian region. The USS Eisenhower battle group is now steaming back to America completing its 6 month tour. It is now obvious that President Obama has no stomach for taking any real military action, anywhere for any reason. Obama is truly a paper tiger and the rest of the world is now waking up to that reality.


Obama's Trust Factor is Gone

As a result of this latest Obama action concerning Syria, the Arab leadership has come to realize that Obama's word means nothing. In fact, Obama simply cannot be trusted. This mistrust will play havoc in Obama's Middle East policies and unless or until trust is restored, the Middle East will be nothing short of serious calamities for US national security in the region and a very real threat to US national security in the continental USA.

It has become apparent that Obama will NOT intervene in the Syrian situation in any way shape or form. Intervention will have to come from the Arab world with perhaps some assistance from European nations such as Britain, France, Italy, Spain and Germany as well as Turkey. It's not clear yet whether Pakistan would join in such an effort but the feelings between Pakistan and Iran are unstable and Pakistan might join in any coalition that would bring down the Iranians and their effort to create a Shiite Islamic world.

The Syrian situation remains a key factor in how things develop in the Mideast. We know, at some point, Syria and Damascus are destroyed by virtue of Biblical Prophecy as found in Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49.

We also know that a Gog-Magog war is coming to Israel and that will result in the annihilation of Magog and its allies i.e. Iran, Turkey, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan and perhaps other regions of Africa and central Asia.

How all of this will play out remains a mystery to us for at least this moment but Syria seems to be where we
as prophecy watchers need to maintain a watchful eye as it seems to be a key turning point on the prophetic timelines.

We had been hearing that the Syrian situation would soon resolve itself by Christmas. That notion was based upon the idea that Obama would order military action against Syria's WMDs before Christmas. With the US Navy having departed, this notion has vaporized. Will the Arab world join with Turkey and perhaps other European nations in intervening in Syria? Probably not, since Russia seems to be prepared to counter-intervene
against such a move.

Thus, the stalemate in Syria remains unless or until there is internal resolution within Syria by the rebels or the regime. At the moment, the rebels appear to be holding the upper hand and Assad is teetering on the brink of elimination. Yet, Iranian and perhaps Russian support may keep the regime in power indefinitely. Perhaps the real key to all of this will be the disposition of Syria's WMDs.  

Israel is monitoring the WMD situation as closely as anyone and will definitively act as needed should the WMD situation become an immediate threat to Israeli national security. Seizure of WMDs by Al Qaeda-related radicals will trigger an Israeli military response. So too would any attempt by Assad to turn and use WMDs against Israel and that still remains a definite possibility.

So as we finish the month of December, the situation is likely to remain very jittery and a real powderkeg where any little spark could set off an explosion of war within a matter of minutes or hours. We see this situation likely to continue on into January and perhaps well beyond that and into 2013.


Iran and the Nuclear Crisis


A little noted article was published early in December noting that Iran has the potential to build 24 nuclear warheads of at least Hiroshima level destructive capabilities. How so? The nuclear reactor rods at the newly activated Bushehr power plant were pulled up after technical problems were discovered. The plant shutdown
was temporary but it brings up an interesting possibility. The Iranians could shut down that plant, remove those rods and use the uranium to build 24 bombs if so desired. Officially those rods belong to the Russians and are
under control of the Russians, but the Iranians could easily seize the plant and force the Russians out leaving the Iranisn in total control of those rods. We understand that it would not take too long to for the Iranians to turn that material into deliverable warheads on fairly short notice (days/weeks).

We also note that President Obama's high hopes of diplomatic solutions to the Iranian crisis via secret and private direct talks with Iran would bear a fruitful undertanding. Indeed, those talks have gone nowhere and Iranian leadership is now indicating that Iran is finished with talk. This is in sharp contrast to the past when Iran begged for drawing out talks as long as posssible to act as a cover for the nuclear program until its completion of a nuclear weapon. This sudden reversal suggests that there is no longer a need to stall for time for its nuclear program. In other words, the nuclear program has reached its goal and is ready to produce or has produced one or more nuclear weapons. If so, that's one more reason why President Obama's Mideast policies will produce nothing but more disasters to come.


Late Breaking Development:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was schedule to visit Ankara, Turkey for a summit meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Recip Erdogan. The meeting was scheduled for this week but at the last minute, the Iranian leader announced cancellation of the trip. Why? Tehran cited the arrival of Patriot missile defense batteries as the reason, noting that such a development will lead to a world war. It also underscores President Obama's
diplomacy and regional policies concerning Iran are totally unravelling.