War Update:

Ceasefire Takes Effect

11-21-12

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Editor's Note: We will let the dust settle on this agreement for a few days before we pull together another A-O Intelligence Digest analysis of the situation. It remains to be seen just how well Hamas can keep the independent, radical groups from breaking the truce. There are serious doubts that the truce can/will hold. We shall wait and see.

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Ceasefire & Truce

"A Funny Thing Happened On the Way to" ... a Ceasefire ...

The title of a famous Broadway stage play reminded me of the latest Mideast peace efforts. Since the weekend, Muslim diplomats have been quietly optimistic that a ceasefire and truce would be arranged between Israel and the Gaza Palestinians before Israel launched a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.

The quiet confidence of the diplomats gave way to eager expectations on Tuesday. News media waited by the hour for an anticipated announcement of final success. Almost hourly, the news media expected a positive announcement from the diplomats and negotiators. As the hours ticked by on the clock, anticipation built in Cairo, but in Gaza the passing hours also passed rockets and bombs back and forth. Muslim leaders revealed that they were simply awaiting Israel's final decision which they expected to be positive because their Israeli counterparts expressed optimism.

By nightfall on Tuesday, it was apparent that no agreement would be reached any time soon. Why? Word leaked that the Israeli cabinet ministers couldn't agree on the terms of a ceasefire. Israeli sources reported that Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak was in favor of the ceasefire but Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman opposed the accord. Each of the three are leaders of 3 different political parties with different agendas ahead of general elections slated for January 22, 2013.

As the sun rose and Israelis made Wednesday another work day, a terror-bombing took place in Tel Aviv. The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade from the West Bank claimed credit for the attack but the celebratory response by Hamas supporters in the Gaza Strip strongly suggested that Palestinian sentiment for a ceasefire would be short-lived, something Israel does not want. The terror attack then has further complicated diplomatic efforts.

At the same time, new doubts were raised within Israel that the Egyptian government could be counted upon to guarantee the truce accords as radical Salafists in the Sinai Peninsula are intent on continuing to smuggle weapons and supplies from the Sinai into Gaza. Thus, Israeli leaders have reasonable doubts that Egypt can deliver on its promises to guarantee the peace and keep Hamas from re-arming. Thus an internal deadlock ensued within the Israeli government. No resolution appeared to be in sight. Enter Hillary.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton flew into Tel Aviv late Tuesday night after being dispatched from President Obama's Asian trip with instructions from the President. We understand that Hillary was briefed by both Netanyahu and the Defense Minister on the military situation. Clinton then gave the Israeli leaders President Obama's undisclosed inducements plus a public committment to provide additional financing for missile defense expansion and military aid. In a phone call with Netanyahu, Obama reiterated his pledge to financial aid for Israel as long as Netanyahu would agree to the terms of the Cairo ceasefire/truce proposal. Clinton then gave the Israelis overnight to sleep on it. Netanyahu, his Foreign Minister and their associates re-convened their meeting Wednesday and after a phone call with President Obama and much wrangling between the 9 cabinet members reluctantly agreed after a lunch break to the proposal early in the afternoon, even as Hillary Clinton's plane was winging its way to Cairo for consulatations with Egypt's President and Foreign Minister.

What we understand is that Prime Minister Netanyahu reluctantly agreed to the truce with great skepticism. It is really a tentative deal, conditional upon the Palestinian's promise to actually halt all rocket attacks. The ceasefire took effect at 9pm Israeli time (2pm Eastern/USA time) 20 minutes after the ceasefire took effect, sirens blared in the Israeli town of Sderot. 34 minutes after the ceasefire took effect, a rocket exploded outside of Shaar Hanegev. Experts on both sides expect there may be some instances of violations by the Palestinian rocketeers but the hope is that Hamas itself will abide by the agreement. If not, Israel will pickup where it left off and conduct its ground operations as previously planned.

For more on this story...see links shown below.

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Hamas, Israel Declare Ceasefire


LINK

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Ceasefire Underway

LINK

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Bus Terror Bombing Details.


LINK

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Hamas Celebrates Bus Terror Bombing

LINK

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U.S. Vetoes UN Bid To Condemn Israel
As Demanded by Russia


LINK

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Lebanese Warn Hezbollah
Against Attacking Israel

Lebanese opponents of Hezbollah have warned the terror group to not launch any attacks on Israel. The warning comes after 2 attempts to launch rockets were foiled by Lebanese opposition forces. More details, LINK HERE.

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