A-O Intelligence Digest 8-3-12
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A-O Intelligence Digest
For August 3, 2012
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The Syrian Crisis Continues Unabated
Russian Claims:
US Troops on Syrian Border
Turk Troops on Syrian Border
Preps for Invasion
Saudi Prince Assassinated?
Is a Regional War Imminent?
There are various, unconfirmed reports of U.S. troops joining Turkish Army forces on the Turkish-Syrian border in preparation for an invasion of Syria. Turkish media reports Turk missile batteries now in position on the border and Turkish military planners consulting weather forecasters for operational planning.
Most mainstream media remains silent on this story, but WorldNetDaily's Mideast reporter, Aaron Klein writes that a senior Syrian official contacted him to explain that Russians have observed American forces taking part in the Turkish deployment along the Syrian border. More details, LINK HERE.
A Turkish newspaper reports Turkish S2A missiles have been deployed along the bordeR as a defense against Syrian Scud missiles.
Iran has responded with a warning that any invasion will be met with Iranian military action under a mutual defense treaty obligation signed between Syria and Iran.
Amid these developments, leaders in Washington, Jerusalem and across the Arab world are nervously waiting for word on rumors that Saudi Prince Bandar has died from wounds suffered last week when a bomb blew up in the Saudi Intelligence Headquarters. The Saudis have yet to report on whether the Prince was even injured in the blast which occured one day after his appointment as chief of Saudi Intelligence on July 26. His appointment was reportedly a reward for his efforts in planning the bombing of the Syrian Intelligence Headquarters on July 18. That event killed 4 of Syrian President Assad's top military/security advisors including the Defense Minister.
Popular speculation on the Saudi bombing has focused on the probability that the bombing was the work of Syrian intelligence agents, but other speculations put the blame in Iran and Al Qaeda. In the past, Iran hired Al Qaeda operatives to conduct operations inside Saudi Arabia.
If the reports are true that Prince Bandar has been assassinated the repercussions could be enormous on many levels around the Middle East. Bandar and his late father had been the leader of a Saudi Royal faction that were hawkish and favored Western nations. The loss of Bandar could result in a shift in relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States.
Another repercussion of the Saudi bombing by Iran would be a re-thinking by Arab rulers of how to deal with Iran. It could result in the Arab world appeasing Iran instead of containing Iran or confronting Iran. Bandar's death would at the minimum threaten the stability of the region.
Keep in mind that nothing has been confirmed or denied by the Saudi government and we only have Arabic and Iranian newspapers filing reports on Bandar's death. For more on the Bandar story, see Debka's intelligence report - LINK HERE.
Inside Syria, Syrian Army forces continue their 2-week old campaign to re-take control of Syria's largest city, Aleppo in the northern region of Syria. Rebel forces have reportedly rushed reinforcements to the city and launched a counter-offensive to beat back the regime's forces. Numerous reports indicate Assad forces have hammered the city with both air and artillery bombardment. For confirmation evidence from mainstream media see links below:
WE TOLD YOU SO
LATE BREAKING NEWS: We reported a week ago that a Russian flotilla was entering the Mediterranean Sea headed for Syria. We noted the warship flotilla included 2 amphibious landing craft and 2 large contingents of Russian marines. A week later, mainstream media just gets around to mentioning this today. Here's yet another case of "we told ya so" a week early.
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Iran Preps For N-Bombs
New intelligence reports out of the Mideast indicate that Iran is preparing to produce 60% grade uranium and will be just a short step to weapons-grade enrichment of 80 to 90% in a matter of weeks.
This news comes amid renewed saber-rattling by Iranian leaders and by Israeli officials. Former Israeli spy chief, Ephraim Halevy told the New York Times that if he were Iranian he would be very, very afraid in the next 12 weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu again pledge to his countrymen that he would never allow Israel to fall under the shadow of a nuclear-armed Iran. He reiterated that to visiting U.S. Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta this week. He also refused to indicate when Israel would attack and categorically told the US defense chief that the US would NOT be given advance warning before any Israeli attack on Iran.
As Panetta travels across the Middle East to inspect U.S. military bases other Mideastern nations are applying extreme pressure upon the Obama Administration to take military action against Iran before Iran finishes transferring its nuclear program to underground facilities that are 'bomb-proof.' Once Iran's nuclear program is safely esconced underground, even the U.S. would be unable to destroy Iran's nuclear bomb program, but instead merely upset the norm by a few weeks or months.
Debka.com is also reporting that Iran is believed to be producing or preparing to produce "dirty" nuclear bombs to be distribued to terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah. You can read Debkafile's news article on the situation - LINK HERE.
US Secretary of Defense
Tours Mideast Military Assets
Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta is on a world tour this week with perhaps his most important stop being Israel. We understand that the talks didn't go well for Panetta,
The primary purpose of the trip to Israel was to ascertain short-term Israeli intentions regarding Iran's nuclear program. Would Israel agree to wait until after the elections? Panetta wanted to know for sure, one way or another and he got no answer despite cordial conversations.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet and military refused to tip their hand on what Israel will or won't do in the coming weeks and months.
Panetta was well aware of IDF Chief Ehud Barak's earlier assessment that the "window of opportunity" to attack and prevent Iran from building a bomb would be closed by the end of August if not sooner. Once the window was closed, most of Iran's nuclear program would have finished moving to "safe" underground facilities and thus invulnerable to attack, short of a massive invasion by millions of troops.
Aware of Barak's "window of opportunity" assessment, Panetta was bound and determined to probe the Israeli leadership for indications of an attack in the next 90 days. For all his efforts, he came up empty. Netanyahu reiterated to Panetta that as Prime Minister he would never allow Israel to fall under an Iranian nuclear weapons threat. Netanyahu's view is that once Iran has the bomb, its only a matter of time before Iran will use it to destroy Israel.
Why will Israeli leaders not reveal their plans to U.S. allies? There is a genuine concern that someone in the Obama Administration would leak word to the Iranians of any impending attack and give the date for the attack. Israel's mind is made up and adamant on the issue. There will be no persuading by the U.S. to give in on the issue. No notification will be given to any nation before any Israeli strike on Iran.
Most likely, only the Prime Minister, the Defense Minister and the top Israeli general will know in advance when the strike would commence. No amount of spying will be able to know beforehand.
All kinds of rumors have begun to fly around Washington and world capitals concerning America's response to an Israeli pre-election strike. The best informed Washington insiders believe that Obama will be furious at Israel for not waiting until after the elections. The expecations are that Obama would somehow "punish" Israel. Rumors also are floating that Israel would retaliate by an all-out endorsement of GOP candidate Romney and/or leaking information that could sink Obama's re-election chances. There is no love lost between Netanyahu and Obama.
On the flip side, there are also rumbling rumors that irrefutable Israeli intelligence has been presented to the Pentagon and White House that Iran is close to finishing its move of facilities to underground bases and a hoard of weaponized uranium that could make 3 to 6 missile warheads and have them mounted on missiles before the November elections. According to the rumors, President Obama has succumbed to Pentagon pressure and ordered preliminary requirements for a US attack on Iran in October. He was advised that to wait any longer would require the use of at least tactical nuclear weapons to destroy Iranian underground nuclear facilities. Such a move would be bound to trigger a confrontation with Russia and China due to the resulting nuclear fallout that would drift over the airspace of those nations.
INTEL NOTE:
Some Oil Companies in Mideast are making preparations for an outbreak of hostilitiles this fall in the Mideast. This includes plans to evacuate off-shore operations in both the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.