---

 

 

A-O Intelligence Update:

For June 29, 2012

 

Mideast:

Rumors and speculations are mounting within the international intelligence community that more ominous developments are set to occur within the next few days, including the possible outbreak of war involving Syria or Hezbollah/Hamas with Israel.

Based upon what I'm picking up across the spectrum, I seriously doubt we'll see any full scale outburst of military action other than within the Syrian civil war sphere. In other words, I do not see it spreading beyond Syria's borders this weekend, though I wouldn't rule it out.

A late surge of Syrian army officers defecting has sparked a lot of the rumors and speculations of Assad preparing to do something horrible, like an WMD attack against Turkey and Israel. There were reports that Syria Scud missiles were again being prepared for WMD strikes. We heard of that last month too, though.

Turkey didn't get the full, public support it needed from NATO or Obama to launch a military attack against Syria after Syria shot down a Turkish warplane. This tells me, things will not escalate into regional conflict just yet. It seems that Obama is doing to Turkey as to Israel. Turkey is being restrained by Obama from attacking Syria while also restraining Israel from attacking Iran. Why?

Team Obama doesn't want the boat rocking during the Presidential election season unless it will help him win re-election, which might become nesseccary as Obama's favorability ratings keep slipping in opinion polls. He may need something to make him look more "presidential" and capable of leading than his opponent. Of course that idea could backfire, too.

Even so, Turkey has rushed troops and armored tanks to the border with Syria and issued warnings for Syrian troops to avoid the border region. As we go to posting, various intelligence sources are reporting that Saudi Arabia’s entire armed forces have gone to High War Alert and have massed troops along its border with Jordan, in anticipation of moving across Jordan and into Syria. It would appear that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are prepared to initiate military action against Syria and protect Jordan against a counter-attack from Iran.

Even as troops are massing for action against Syria, U.S. and Russian diplomats are working frantically behind the scenes to hammer out some sort of “Big-Power” arrangement for Syria’s President Assad to leave power and be given sanctuary in Moscow. In the past 24 hours, Secretary of State Clinton has arrived in St. Petersburg after Putin has signaled a willingness to support a removal of Assad as long as his political base remains and shares power with the dissidents in a new compromise government. This would allow Russia to retain its naval base in Latakia, something Russia highly values for its own security.

Clinton meets with Russia’s Foreign Minister ahead of a UN conference on Syria being held in Geneva, Switzerland on Saturday. The UN meeting is headed by former UN chief, Kofi Annan. Attendees will work with Annan’s latest proposal to resolve the Syrian situation and create a transitional government without any further bloodshed. With Russia’s shift to support for Annan’s proposal, perhaps the situation can be resolved without any escalation in military action.

Clinton’s meeting with Russia’s Foreign Minister will determine how far or how little Russia will cooperate with the UN meeting. If there is a failure to reach agreement between Russia and US ahead of the meeting, intelligence analysts suspect that major military operations against Assad by Arab and Western military assets will take place as early as Sunday, July 1 or shortly thereafter.

A Wild Card Cancelled?

As we write this, Iran has given a warning that it may close of the Strait of Hormuz. As a response, President Obama directed that a series of tough sanctions, scheduled to take effect on July 1 have been delayed for six months. This includes the oil embargo on Iran.
This eases the pressure for an early, military clash with Iran by the U.S. and Western nations.

There are twitter reports from Saudi Arabian news agency that Gulf States (the GCC) have put their air forces on high alert because of the Iranian announcement as well as the Syrian situation. Additionally, 4 US Navy minesweepers have arrived in the Gulf along with a US Navy amphibious assault command ship, the USS New York. Its role would be to assist in any military operation to seize control of 3 islands in the Strait that Iran would utilize to mine the Strait. Given Obama’s postponement of sanctions, the chances of a military clash over the Strait due to the sanctions have been greatly diminished. However, given the Syrian situation, the potential for action in the Strait remains substantial.

Israel Rushes Troops To Syrian Border

Israel is also rushing troops to the Syrian border. Officially, the IDF states that the reason is to beef up security and avoid cross-border terror attacks by Jihadists operating in Syria or Hezbollah who might steal WMD supplies and stage terror attacks inside Israel. It also may be in conjunction with Turk and Saudi troop deployments, anticipating a potential military invasion of Syria and a consequential counter-attack by Assad against Israel.

 

Putin's Mideast Visit:

 

Russian President Putin's visit to Israel proved to be rather insightful. Putin was reportedly very candid in his meetings with Israeli leaders concerning the overall situation in the region. Putin laid out Russian security concerns involving all the revolutions in the Mideast. Putin believes this is all part of an orchestrated plot by the West and the U.S. to make Russia impotent and keep it from regaining super-power status. Western efforts also apply to producing similar results against China. Thus the two nations are allied.

Putin sees the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic fanatics as a threat to moderate, Muslim nations neighboring Russia. He also sees it as a threat to Russia, which harbors a large Muslim minority. He fears that eventually there will be a fanatical Muslim uprising attempt within Russia, but only if the West's plans are not stopped by Russian intervention.

The bottom line from Putin to Netanyahu was that both Russia and Israel are in the same boat. Putin asserted to Israel that the most urgent threat for both Israel and Russia is not a nuclear Iran. While he acknowledged a nuclear Iran would be a threat to both nations, he believes Iran is still a long way from having nuclear weapons. The more imminent danger is the expansion of Islamic radicals taking over the region's governments. Of most concern was the spreading power of the Muslim Brotherhood which desires to set up a global one-world Islamic government.

Putin tried to tell the Israelis that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would do more harm than good to Israel. It would weaken Israel and perhaps enable the Muslim Brotherhood to wipe out Israel. He urged the Israelis to abandon the U.S. as a protector, noting that Obama secretly despises Israel on a personal level and would like nothing more than to see Israel destroyed as a Jewish nation.

Whether or not all of this leaked information about the Putin-Netanyahu talks are true or not is hard to say. It has a ring of truth, but that does not make it so. We suspect Putin gave the Israeli's a "sales pitch" that would persuade Israel to change policies that would enable Russia to achieve its own foreign policy objectives and increase Russian influence and power.

Israeli War Plans:

There's been further discussion within the intelligence community regarding Israel's intentions towards a military strike on Iran. The question is not an "IF" but rather a when.

In answering the "when" there is much speculation that Israel will attack by or before the US general elections on November 6. Any attack then would force Obama to give greater support to Israel rather than to oppose or obstruct Israeli actions.  At the same time, the clock is ticking on Israel's ability to launch successful military operations that would stall Iran's nuclear weapons program or set it back.

There are rumors floating that President Obama is reconsidering the idea of military action against Iran this year. Because diplomacy has stalled out, Obama views the stall as a potential political liability. Thus, military action might become a political necessity for Obama’s re-election chances, and thus the change of mind. Why?

Given the diplomatic stall and the fact that Iran is moving its nuclear program to underground facilities at a breakneck pace. Israel's Defense Minister Barak has publicly stated that the window of opportunity for any effective military action is rapidly closing and will close by the end of summer. Thus, if Israel is going to have any military success, action must be taken by or before the end of summer, probably no later than the end of October if not August. Once all is transferred underground, even the U.S. will have a tough time destroying the underground facilities buried deep within a large mountain outside the holy city of Qom.

It would also look bad, politically for Obama to be portrayed as weak and indecisive in allowing the Israelis to carry out the military strikes. Thus, Obama might find it politically advantageous to get out in front of Israel and take the initiative. Obama has not made any decisions and probably won’t until the middle of October, according to the rumors rumbling around Washington’s cocktail circuit. However, consider these as just rumors and may or may not be based in fact, yet where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire.

What also gives the rumors a bit more credence is the fact that Debkafile is reporting that its Saudi sources report that Saudi leadership believes the rumors are true and is planning appropriately for action this fall. There is some question in the Saudi minds on the timing of an attack as there remains the possibility of an attack after the elections.

On a side-note, should hostilities break out, the new oil pipelines will be up and running across the Saudi Arabian peninsula. This will mean that oil can still reach the world without running thru the Strait of Hormuz, depriving the Iranians of having a stranglehold on Arabian oil flow.

All of this speculation comes amidst scheduled plans for a massive US-Israeli military drill to be conducted in October. It will be the largest ever joint military drill for the two nations. The timing of such an operation would be fortuitous for ordering a real attack.

Meanwhile…

Some of the latest published intelligence reports conclude that Iran already has enough highly enriched uranium to produce weapons-grade uranium for two nuclear weapons within a 45 day span of time. It is believed that assembling/installing a finished weapon aboard Iranian missiles might take another 30-90 days. Even so, Israeli leaders will probably be forced to take action before the end of August or otherwise face the prospects of dealing with a nuclear Iran in the near future as Israel is unable to destroy Iran's new underground facilities.

The stage is now set for what I believe will be a very HOT month of July in the geo-political arena followed by a lull and then everything accelerates to a more intense level, probably late July or August. With each passing month, pressures and tensions are bound to mount until there is some sort of resolution or blow-out.

 

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

 

 

 

 

-