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The A-O Intelligence Digest

For January 27, 2012

 

Chances For War in Middle East

 

 

 

The chances for imminent war in the Middle East between Israel and Iran have never been so high as they are in 2012. The month of January has witnessed a series of shocking developments that has seemingly triggered a serious rift between Israeli officials and the Obama White House. Iran has crossed serious points of 'no-return' and in doing so a rift between Netanyahu and Obama has widened dramatically over just how each nation views the need for a response to Iran's actions.

 

In the last 30 days Iran has stepped over a serious "red line" or in another metaphor Iran has stepped over an Israeli line drawn in the sand. Specifically, Iran has begun uranium enrichment at its new underground mountain facility outside the holy city of Qom. Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that such a development would not only be unacceptable but would be cause for military action by Israel.

 

As the year began, Iranian leaders announced the new facility had begun enrichment operations in the new facility, sometimes referred to as the Fordo facility. Even before the announcement for underground production was tendered by Iran, Iranian officials were rattling sabers over the Strait of Hormuz and impending Western sanctions against Iran. Yet there were other subtle developments moving behind the scenes in late December and on into January.

 

Shockers:

Iran Announces Start of Underground Enrichment Operations

Iran Threatens to close Strait of Hormu

Iran Warns USA Against Sending Carrier Through Hormuz

Iran Offers To Negotiate on its Nuclear Program

Netanyahu Cancels Joint War Game with USA - an unprecedented move

 

US Responds by halting transfer of troops to Israel suggesting US was reconsidering how it would respond to a unilateral surprise attack by Israel on Iran.

 

Why Did Netanyahu Cancel (Postpone) the War Game?  Lack of Trust?

 

1. Netanyahu doesn't trust USA or EU sanctions to halt Iran's efforts to make nuclear weapons.

2. Netanyahu doesn't think Obama will ever order military action against Iran, and/or if he does, it will be too late.

3. Perhaps the whole thing was an orchestrated psychological campaign to keep Iran off-balance?

 

Iran's nuclear weapons building capacity is estimated at minimum to produce 3 warheads per year, perhaps more according to some intelligence estimates. There are some reports suggesting that Iran already has enough enriched fuel to build 6 bombs.

 

Netanyahu is reportedly convinced that Israel cannot allow Iran to make nuclear weapons. Even so, there is a division within the Israeli military and intelligence communities as to whether Israel can inflict enough damage to make the inevitable Iranian retaliation worthwhile. In the past week, new revelations from key Israeli experts have indicated that Israeli military strikes would only delay the inevitable by a mere matter of months to maybe a year. From what we understand in reading various public statements by Israeli officials is that in order to justify an attack, the attack must be able to set back Iran’s march for nuclear weapons by at least two years or longer. Given the division of opinions

as to the effectiveness of an Israeli strike, it seems that Israeli leaders may have backed away from the idea of ordering military action.

 

Netanyahu's political future hinges on his campaign pledge to prevent a nuclear Iran. If Iran goes nuclear, Netanyahu's days as a leader are over. He wouldn't win reelection in 2013. Yet, he appears to be caught between a rock and a hard spot.

 

Netanyahu also believes that cooperating with America's strategy on the Iran problem is eroding Israel's defense credibility and deterrent strength. He is not alone in such assessments as other Israeli analysts have publicly made similar conclusions.

 

Netanyahu can note the following list of recent events demonstrate the U.S. (or Obama) is a paper tiger.

 

Iran downs a stealth drone on Dec 4. US does nothing.

US back channel diplomacy with Iran continues.

Iran challenges the US Navy’s access to the Strait of Hormuz. US delays a response for more than a week.

US Sanctions have built-in delays. The teeth of sanctions won’t take serious effect until late in 2012 or early 2013.

 

There is a growing belief within Israeli leadership circles that Obama will take no military action in 2012 to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons. Israeli leaders have developed a keen sense of mistrust in President Obama, no matter what he says.

 

While there is a real rift between Obama & Netanyahu both leaders need to maintain some sense of cooperation and coordination and both are struggling to maintain that relationship.

 

It appears that in an effort to stop Israel from launching an independent military strike against Iran in January, President Obama has agreed to quietly take some dramatic military actions. There are reports of additional US troop build ups in the region. Additional warships are steaming towards the region and

 

The aircraft carrier, the USS Enterprise will join the region in March. The Pentagon is now moving to re-fit a warship for the role of being a ‘mothership’ for special commando operations in the Persian Gulf. This project is slated to be ready by summer.

 

Even as military movements suggest a US military option is being readied for later this year, the Obama Administration is frantically working diplomatic channels for some sort of dialogue with Tehran.

 

Over in Tehran, the regime is apparently moving towards greater belligerence.

 

The Iranian parliament is set to vote to halt all oil shipments to Iran’s European customers. Some intelligence reports indicate that Iran is preparing to shut off the Strait of Hormuz in incremental fashion and present a direct challenge to the U.S. Navy. Iran is doing everything it can to provoke the US into taking the first military action.

 

Debka.com has posted a speculative report that the situation between Iran and the West will switch from the issue of nuclear weapons to oil. They are NOT ALONE. Other analysts are also now expecting a similar shift in emphasis, IF Iran’s parliament votes to shut off oil exports to Europe. One military strategist suspects that we should expect Iran to engage in an asymmetric ‘shadow’ naval war in the Persian Gulf, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

News reports have been published this week indicating that Iran has dispatched commando squads and terror cells to various points around the world to carry out

 

Assignments designed as retribution for the harsh economic sanction employed by the United States and the EU.

 

These Iranian units will terrorize Iran’s enemies with assassinations, bombings and create chaos and mayhem. Some targets will be oriented to oil and energy installations. Other targets may be embassies and individual assassinations of diplomats and “scientists” in retribution for the mysterious assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists. Some of these teams may also conduct cyber-attacks against the internet or government and oil industry facilities.

 

 

An Israeli Strike on Iran?

 

For now, it appears that Israel’s leadership has decided to wait and see what develops in the next 30 to 60 days. From what we understand, the Israelis are

apparently hoping that Iran will make some sort of move that can be used as an excuse to take direct military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities. In fact, the hope is that Iran’s actions might trigger an American and EU military response that will include tackling the Iranian nuclear problem as well as what appears to be a looming “oil war.”

 

 

A U.S. Invasion of Iran?

 

Once again, Debka.com is reporting that the Pentagon is massing up to 100,000 US combat troops to the region. If such reports are true, and frankly, we have some doubts on this report, such a massing of troops would indicate plans for America to invade Iran with boots on the ground to literally seize all of Iran’s nuclear facilities. We highly doubt that President Obama would take any such actions, yet there is no reason for the U.S. to dispatch 100,000 troops to the region other than for a massive ground operation inside Iran, or to defend the oil kingdoms from an Iranian amphibious invasion. On the latter point, we doubt Iran would take such extreme measures.

 

Saudis & China Play "Let's Make a Deal"

 

 

While the U.S. delays any military action, the King of Saudi Arabia and the other Arab leaders in the Persian Gulf are exasperated to no end with Obama.

 

The Saudis have practically been screaming (behind closed doors) for Obama to take military action against Iran, sooner rather than later. The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the White House is so strained that the Saudis are taking matters into their own hands. The Saudis gave put their military on high alert and have mobilized their military to take up defensive positions around their key oil installations to defend against Iranian commando or terror strikes. The Air Force and Navy are gearing up for war with Iran. Similar measures are underway in other Persian Gulf nations.

 

Last week, King Abdullah and China agreed to a joint venture in which the Chinese have agreed to provide assistance for a Saudi nuclear program with the unspoken intention of creating nuclear weapons. Nuclear proliferation is about to run rampant throughout the Middle East, all because President Obama’s policies towards Iran have been too lenient and too late. Obama simply is not considered trustworthy by long-standing allies in the region. Of course, its possible that such a deployment is meant to simply reassure Arab allies of American resolve to defend their lands from a Persian threat.

 

 

Syria & Turkey Are Wild Cards

 

The situation in Syria continues to deteriorate. There is serious concern that Syrian President Assad may yet lash out at Israel or Turkey as Assad’s grip on power deteriorates as expected in the coming weeks. Assad has previously stated that he reserves the right to attack Israel and or any other nation that he perceives to be interfering in Syria’s internal affairs. Israel’s armed forces along the Syrian border have been beefed up as a precaution against such a move.

 

Turkey has threatened to become involved militarily with Syria but Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is reportedly in very poor health and political power is shifting within Turkey. There is reportedly little desire within the Turkish government for any sort of military adventurism, other than to lay claim to oil and natural gas deposits now claimed by Israel, Greece and Cyprus.

 

There are reports that Turkey has also informed NATO and President Obama that Turkish bases cannot be used to attack Iranian nuclear facilities at least under present circumstances. This is due in part to blunt warnings issued by Tehran that if attacked from Turkish facilities, Iran would severely retaliate against Turkey with ballistic missile bombardments as well as covert operations.

 

Given the Turkish government’s position of fence-sitting, we would not be surprised to find Turkey, suddenly joining in with Iran to attack Israel, or more likely to attack Israel’s oil facilities out in the Mediterranean Sea. This could be Turkey’s role in the Magog war prophecies of Ezekiel. We’re not saying this will happen, but rather at the moment a remote, yet distinct possibility.

 

Russia’s role in all of this turmoil is primarily as a bystander. We find it highly unlikely that Russia will take military action to defend Iran or Syria. While the Russians claim there is national security at stake, this is not really the case. Russia’s warships docking in Syrian ports is simply a show designed to give comfort to a ‘weapons customer’ who is rapidly losing legitimacy with the international community. Russia has nothing to gain militarily in defending either Syria or Iran.

 

China has already demonstrated its neutrality by agreeing to a lucrative deal with Saudi Arabia. China is all about making money and Saudi Arabia is now a vital partner of greater value than Iran.

 

 

The European Union

 

The situation in Europe continues to deteriorate. It is merely a matter of time before the EU dissolves or morphs into some sort of new entity. As it now stands, the EU is effectively bankrupt. Greece is once again on the verge of default on its bonds. Other nations are not far behind, including: Spain, Italy, Portugal and even France and Britain find themselves nearing the brink. More credit rating drops are taking place with more to come as the situation deteriorates. European banks are in deep trouble.

 

The situation will likely carry over into the international currency markets threatening the dollar as well.

 

The Iranian oil sanctions will have a negative rebound effect on the US Dollar. India, China, and Russia are working out deals with Iran to trade in alternative currency and barter. India is going to purchase some of its oil with gold and will no doubt set off another boom in gold prices this spring.

 

All of this bodes ill for the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency for trading in oil. Look for oil prices and commodity prices in general to skyrocket around the world in the coming weeks and months ahead. Such price instability will have a deleterious effect on the global economy and will no doubt trigger a world-wide recession or depression – UNLESS – or UNTIL – a new, one-world currency is created. We could see such a creation develop as early as this summer or later this year.

 

The World Economic Forum meetings in Davos, Switzerland have brought together the world’s top bankers and business leaders to discuss all of world issues along with strategies and tactics for implementing the New World Order and a one-world government. This year’s meeting will be looked upon by historians as a very historic meeting, but expect no public pronouncements. It’s all very hush-hush, as is so typical with the New World Order elites.

 

 

What Do We Expect to Unfold in Coming Weeks?

 

 

What we suspect will take place in the coming weeks is increasing chaos in the Middle East, revolving around the supply of oil. In some respects we anticipate a semi-hot war for oil, much like the oil-tanker war of the late 1980s when Iran and Iraq were locked in war that spilled over into the Persian Gulf waters. More likely what will transpire will be more of a “terror war” than any sort of conventional war.


There are also reports that the Palestinians will engage in a 3rd Intifada against Israel come spring time. The Palestinians are plotting to create an “Arab Spring” against Israel, which will keep the IDF locked down in defense of the homeland, if the Palestinians are able to actually pull off such a strategy.

 

Given what we see developing, we conclude that the best way to describe what will take place in the next few months in the Middle East (and probably the world) is to sum it all up into a single word – “CHAOS.”

 

 

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