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The A-O Intelligence Digest

January 14, 2012

 

To Strike or Not To Strike

That is the Question

 

The situation regarding Iran has morphed into something similar to watching a tennis match at the net, where the observer's neck is constanty turning back and forth. So too with the situation in the Middle East. It's enough to give a person whiplash.

 

In the visible sphere of geo-politics in the Middle East, tensions are at a fever pitch in war speculations. Sabers continue to rattle. Behind the scenes however, the White House has quietly been working to avoid any sort of premature military clash with Iran. Below is a report on what we know and understand.

 

Despite all the public bluster and the rush of U.S. naval forces to the region, the White House has been heavily engaged in diplomacy with both allies as well as Iran. U.S. intelligence, Pentagon and White House strategists believe that despite Iran's relentless march towards nuclear weapons, American leaders still believe a military clash can be avoided - IF - regime change can occur in Tehran. At the moment, President Obama and his advisors are holding out high hopes that the nuclear radicals in Tehran can ousted by a general uprising of the Iranian people. They note 4 reasons for such thinking.

 

Regime Change Hopes:

 

Backfired Blustering

 

It appears that within the last few days, the Iranian ruling clerics have awakened to the realization that their saber-rattling tactics and bluster have backfired. The recent bluster by Iran was apparently part of an effort to test and prove that America and President Obama was merely a paper tiger. It was a bold gamble but it has failed.

The White House response to Iranian threats to seize the Strait of Hormuz was to raise the ante much like in a poker game. The Pentagon has dispatched 2 additional super-carrier battle groups and added 3 additional amphibious carrier battle groups to the region. Those forces are either already on station or will soon arrive in the region within the next few days. The U.S. has also rushed nearly 9,000 American soldiers to Israel for a joint war exercise involving missile and air defense support for Israel. Per the White House directions, the Pentagon has kept 40,000 U.S. troops in the region as a standby precaution. Some of those troops are in Kuwait, while others are in Jordan.

 

U.S. military forces in the region are bracing for the possibility of military action against Iran but behind the scenes, the White House is working to bring about regime change. The reason for such optimism is based upon the latest U.S. intelligence assessments concerning the political situation in Tehran.

 

Russia & China Protection Is Gone

The Iranian regime shot itself in the foot with all of its saber-rattling and bluster since Christmas. The Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz set off alarms around the world. Suddenly, the international community, most of which remained neutral towards the Iranians went negative. World opinion, with few exceptions has swung against Iran. Even Iran's key allies, Russia and China have taken a subtle shift in their approach to the growing crisis.

 

Part of the shift in relations between Iran and China as well as Russia stem from the shift in world opinion which has forced a repositioning by those two nations. They perceive Obama's latest moves and statements to indicate a firm resolve to keep Hormuz open and a determination to go to war if necessary. Such a move would also give the U.S. a full excuse to destroy once-and-for-all Iran's nuclear program.  Both Russia and Chinese advisors have bluntly informed Tehran that Iran is no match for U.S. military capablities and that in any showdown, Iran will be a huge loser.

 

For Russia a confrontation would be an economic boondoggle as oil prices would skyrocket and flood Russia with additional oil and gas revenues. For China, the only drawback to a confrontation is a loss of oil supplies, but Saudi Arabia is willing and able to fill in the missing supplies so there is no real problem for China. Saudi Arabia's gain is Iran's financial loss.

 

China is now convinced that it must go along with the U.S. and European efforts to implement an oil embargo against Iran. U.S. diplomacy has convinced China that is in China's long-term interests to make sure that Iran does not become a nuclear power. China was told bluntly that Iran's long-term interests include conquest of China by Iran's brand of Shiite Islam. In the near term, China's best interests are threatened by a nuclear Iran that would no doubt act to destroy Israel and bring on a religious civil war to unite the Arab world in Iran's version of Shiite Islam, which in turn would pose a dangerous menace to the Chinese.

 

With that in mind, China has conferred with Saudi Arabia to supply China with the necessary crude oil to replace what it had been buying from Iran. Indeed, as we go to press, a late news report from Saudi Arabia reveals a new agreement with China for the joint development of a new oil refinery on the Red Sea coastline of Saudi Arabia at Yanbu. The new facility will process 400,000 barrels of oil per day.

 

China is not alone among Iran's oil customers seeking alternative oil supplies. Tokyo, India and South Korea are also coming to terms with Saudi Arabia for oil supplies that had been met by Iran. European nations that purchased Iranian oil are now in the middle of finding new oil sources including new supplies coming online from Libya.

 

This shift in oil trade is all due to new measures by the United States to sanction anyone doing banking business with Iran. A nation that is conducting banking business with Iran will find itself cut-off from U.S. banking resources. That move is proving to be a real and very effective "hammer."

 

The EU is also preparing an oil embargo of its own, although that is slated to take 6 to 9 months to take effect in order to allow for alternative choices to be made. Yet, Saudi Arabia is ramping up production and claims it does not need 6 to 9 months to cover the amounts needed to replace Iranian purchases. The Saudis claim that can match all needs within a matter of days and weeks, as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open.

 

Impending Financial Doom and FAMINE For Iran

 

All of these late developments signal a financial calamity ahead for Iran. Iran is now facing the loss of nearly all of its income and skyrocketing costs for goods it needs to maintain a modern civilization. Food costs are skyrocketing and food inventories are rapidly shrinking. The Iranian regime was given a recent report warning the ruling clerics that by summer, Iranian citizens could be experiencing:  FAMINE!

 

Faced with the likelihood of severe economic hardship and famine, the ruling clerics find themselves facing an irate citizenry with the motivation for regime in a year of general elections.

 

In an effort to combat an electoral debacle at the ballot box, the ruling elite have taken measures to 'rig' the elections and squelch political opposition. President Ahmadinejad is maneuvering to scapegoat the head of Iran's central bank and his political opponents. His political opponents are already maneuvering to blame Ahmadinejad. The Supreme Ayatollah and his forces are working to discredit not only Ahmadinejad but other political opposition. In other words, the various factions of the ruling regime are locked into major infighting amongst themselves in an effort to retain power. Their one fear is a popular mass revolt in the streets much like those in Egypt, Syria and other Arab nations last year.

 

A Persian Spring Uprising?

 

The Obama Administration is counting on a popular revolt much like the Arab Spring Uprisings of last year only this time, it would be a "Persian Spring." The White House strategy pins its hopes on Iranian factories being forced to close, triggering massive unemployment. The banking sanctions would halt imports necessary for manufacturing. The sanctions would also halt vital food imports creating a famine situation by the summertime. On top of this, Iran imports most of its gasoline and diesel fuel. Suddenly, Iran would find itself bereft of its transportation capabilities, although, the regime has stored up extra inventories of gasoline, diesel fuel and natural gas.

 

Despite the regime's efforts to prepare in advance, severe shortages of food and massive unemployment spell out major problems for the regime in keeping the citizenry from taking to the streets. In 2009, massive protests turned bloody, but this time, it will be hard for the radicals in the Revolutionary Guards and the militia to maintain control and authority.

 

With this as a backdrop, the Obama Administration is pinning its hopes that the regime's rulers will at last relent on efforts to achieve a nuclear weapon and negotiate on terms suitable for the dissolution of Iran's nuclear weapons program in order for the regime to maintain its hold on power. Last week, Iran signalled a willingness to return to the negotiating table. The regime also invited the UN's nuclear watchdog agency, The IAEA to return to Iran for talks and inspections. The IAEA team will begin talks in an effort to reach some sort of agreement.

 

The question remains though as to whether or not the rulers in Tehran are finally going to seriously give up their nuclear ambitions. This question is being hotly debated in world capitals even as we write this report. Countless times, Iran has turned to the bargaining table in an effort to "boy time" for achieveing nuclear power. Will Iran simply stall for more time now? Many analysts believe the ruling clerics think they can still win by continuing to delay.

 

From what can be gathered, it seems that the regime's rulers think that if they suddenly have a bomb or bombs in their possession, everything changes in their favor. There are intelligence reports indicating that the nuclear weapons program is working frantically to have a bomb within a matter of weeks, perhaps as early as January 28. There are however other intelligence analysts who doubt that Iran can have a test bomb ready for detonation before January of 2013. No one really knows for sure because no one knows how much has been done in secret to this point.

 

The one conclusion that still seems to be operative is that the ruling clerics think that if they possess a bomb, their problems will magically disappear and the world will allow Iran to become a nuclear power. They fail to appreciate the determination of America, Israel and Western nations in their resolve to prevent a nuclear Iran.

 
With this information as a backdrop, is it any wonder that President Obama pressed Israel this past week to hold off on any military action? Indeed, despite the taunting challenge of Iran concerning the Strait of Hormuz, President Obama chose to not order the aircraft carrier Stennis to return through the Strait of Hormuz in defiance to Tehran's warning to not return the carrier to the Persian Gulf. Given the above developments, the President chose to ignore the challenge, at least for now, and pursue efforts to bring the Iranians to heel without the need for military challenges or actions.

 

Is Israel Ready To Strike Iran?

 

As developments unfolded last week, Washington realized that Israel was making ominous moves suggesting an imminent Israeli military attack on Iran was in the wings. Israeli leaders have steadfastly refused to divulge their intentions to Washington concerning any military action against Iran.

While Israeli and American leaders have been in nearly constant communication and correlating joint strategies, the Israelis remain aloof in divulging any intentions for unilateral military actions. Frankly, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak feel they simply cannot trust President Obama and his administration. They retain serious doubts that President Obama will ever take military action to halt Iran's nuclear weapons program.

 

Because of this high level of mistrust towards the American leadership, Israeli leaders simply refuse to reveal their full intentions. This past week, Iran crossed a red line when it announced it was pursuing uranium enrichment at its new underground facility at Fordow near the holy city of Qom. Indeed, Iran has already crossed other red lines, including advancement of ballistic missile warhead development. Israel knows or believes that Iran has the capability now to assemble several nuclear weapons in a very short amount of time, should the Supreme Leader give the orders. For that reason, Israeli leaders are keeping their plans to themselves.

 

Washington's fears of an Israeli military strike were heightened after Israeli officials announced plans to shut down their nuclear reactor at Dimona as a precaution against being an Iranian missile target. It is only logical for such a target to be shut down as a precaution in advance of a possible military clash. 

 

On the flip side however, 9,000 U.S. soldiers have arrived in Israel for joint military exercises ("Austere Challenge 2012") to coordinate missile defense capabilities. As part of this project, American officers are stationed in Israel while Israeli officers have taken up positions at an Israeli command headquarters set up in Germany at the US command facilities, EUCOM. What should be somewhat reassuring to Washington is the fact that US officers are now embeded within the IDF headquarters in Israel. Should Israel decide to launch a pre-emptive strike, American officers should be aware of such efforts long before the strike takes place, giving America some advance warning.

 

Washington chose to hold "Austere Challenge 2012" at this time instead of its scheduled date of April, because of the rising tensions and the fact that Iran's elections will be held in March, giving rise to speculation that an Israeli-Iran clash might preceed the elections. As such, the U.S. stands ready to assist in Israel's air defenses to fend off Iranian ballistic missiles should there be an outbreak of hostilities.

 

Another factor in play for the decision to start Austere Challenge 2012 three months early was the Syrian crisis. The situation within Syria continues to deteriorate and given President Assad's vow to attack Israel if faced with internal defeat, the addition of American troops provides Israel with additional reassurances that the U.S. will stand up and support Israel should the need arise.

 

Speaking of the Syrian situation, Washington has made it clear to Israeli leaders that Israel must maintain a low profile to avoid Syrian complications. The Obama Administration has gone to great lengths to stress the need for Israel to maintain a low profile throughout this entire regional crisis. This extends even to any U.S. military strikes on Iran. The Pentagon does not want Israel to become involved in any way whatsoever with Iranian operations. However, should Syria respond to a U.S. attack on Iran by attacking Israel, as many expect, Israeli leaders have vowed to respond as necessary and will not sit idle and absorb Syrian blows to Israel.

 

The Israelis are reportedly concerned that their own image and reputation for paying back aggressors could be tarnished once again, much as what happened in Gulf War One when the Bush Administration forced Israel to remain non-belligerent as Saddam launched scud attacks onto Israeli soil. Israeli strategists feel that Israeli inaction led Arabs into thinking that the Israelis had gone "soft" and could be pushed around at will, because America would restrain Israel.

 

Another factor that concerns Washington and the Obama Administration is the fact that Israeli intelligence reports that Iran is building nuclear weapons components and is preparing a nuclear test site. Estimates vary as to when Iran might conduct such a test, but the common conclusion is that such a test will be similar to North Korean tests - using a one-kiloton size bomb. That would be about a tenth of the size of the bomb on Hiroshima. Some Israeli as well as most American experts doubt that Iran will conduct such a test before January of 2013. However, no one knows what other secret elemetns within the Iranian program may exist that could give Iran the ability to conduct such a test in a matter of days or weeks ahead.

 

One factor that may restrain Israel from launching a sneak attack in January is the arrival of America's top general, General Mark Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He is due to arrive at midweek for consulations on the upcoming exercise as well as to review the unfolding Iranian situation. He is expected to again make the case for Israeli restraint against any Israeli actions against Iran and or Syria.

 

President Obama finds himself facing pressure from not only Israel for military action, but also from Saudi Arabia and Arab leaders in the Gulf region. Last week, Foreign Minister's from Saudi Arabia and Qatar made an unscheduled "surprise" visit to the Oval Office. The meeting was not so much a request for a meeting but rather an urgent "demand." King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia dispatched his Foreign Minister with a handwritten letter seeking to know what President Obama's intentions were for the Iranian problems. The Saudi leader wanted to know point-blank whether or not Obama was going to take military action against Iran. Furthermore, the Saudis and Qataris strenuously counseled the president that he must take some sort of military action if Iran is to be denied nuclear weapons.

 

President Obama repeatedly indicated that he simply would not allow a nuclear Iran to exist even if it meant military action. The Arab leaders remained unconvinced even after the meeting. The Saudi diplomat grilled Obama about the Iranian threat against a U.S. aircraft carrier. Obama was told that if Obama's word is to be taken seriously in Tehran, Obama must order a show of force and resend the ship through the Strait of Hormuz. The Saudis were concerned that instead of taking up the challenge, the carrier instead rescued  Iranian sailors who had been kidnapped by Somali pirates.  The Saudis considered such an action to viewed by Iran as a weakness rather than a strength or as a gesture of goodwill.

 

The meeting failed to convince the Arabs that the President could be trusted to take the necessary military moves to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power. According to leaks from the Gulf region, the Saudis informed Obama that if nothing else, the Saudis and other likeminded nations in the region would take the necessary military action, even if it also meant developing their own nuclear weapons in order to counter Iran.

 

 The Magog Factor

 

Turning to another related prophetic element in Middle East geo-politics. Israel has signed formal defense treaty agreements with both Greece and the Greek portion of Cyprus. This new defense treaty involves the military defense of the oil and natural gas reserves claimed by the three nations in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The area is also now being claimed by Turkey.

 

Turkey has threatened Israel, Greece and Cyprus with war and has dispatched a Frigate and 2 missile boats to the region to monitor developments. Turkey warns that while it will permit the nations to conduct exploration and tests, it will NOT allow any of the natural gas or oil from the region to be produced and brought to market. So far there has only been testing and exploration of the fields.

 

The new treaty means that the three nations will establish joint naval defense of the area which will add additional burdens upon the Israeli Navy. It is believed that as much as 40 percent of Israel's Navy will be necessary to protect and defend the area against Turkish threats.

 

Meanwhile, Russia has made it a point to lobby Israel for the rights to construct and operate gas pipelines from the field to Europe. It seems Russia's Prime Minister Putin is determined to make every effort to sway Israel into doing business with Russia on this matter. The Russians are trying to establish an energy monopoly over its European neighbors and this new field could be a competitor to such a monopoly. The Russian desires for controlling the transport of this new source of natural gas is so great that it may explain Russia's sudden willingness to abandon Iran just as Iran was ratcheting up tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time however, negotiations with Russia are likely to go nowhere as the energy field is under the control of an American energy company as well as an Italian firm. The Noble Energy Company, a US corporation holds the trump card in any such negotiations for pipeline transport. The company has the backing of the United States government with the added benefit of protection from the U.S. Navy. It only stands to reason that ultimately, the winner of the pipelines headed for Europe will be American companies. However, Russia may win the rights to handle pipeline distribution elsewhere.

 

Now we mention this all because of the Ezekiel prophecies which makes a notation that when Magog invades Israel, the world's nations raise the question as to whether Magog has come to "take a spoil" suggesting capturing something of major economic value, such as the energy resources of Israel. Given the fact that the tribal names mentioned include areas of modern-day Turkey, the new Israeli energy fields and Turkeys' interest in those fields suggests that Turkey is the nation being referenced by Ezekiel.

We may yet see, Turkey switch sides suddenly in the middle of any military conflict with Iran. We say this in part because the health of Turkey's Prime Minister is a question mark. Rumors abound that the Turk leader has cancer despite official denials. Whatever the ailment, it has seriously interfered with the Prime Minister's abilities to lead. His political contemporaries are more anti-Israel than is Prime Minister Erdogan and a new Turk leader may be more inclined to challenge Israel, militarily over the energy fields at some future point in time. This is an issue upon which prophecy watchers should keep a watchful eye for future developments.  

 

Window of Opportunity

 

One final note for this Digest Edition. Given the facts that we've just presented above, we have serious doubts that Israel will launch any sort of unilateral military strikes against Iran anytime in January, unless Iran makes a pre-emptive move, or Syria and Hezbollah start something. Given the fact that U.S. pressure against military action is very intense and given the fact that U.S. forces are on Israeli soil and given the internal situation within Iran, we suspect that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak will not order any strikes during the coming "optimum strike window" of January 20-28. This strike window is based upon the "new moon" period that hits on January 23. 

 

Current military strategy doctrines hold to the notion that the best time to conduct surprise aerial strikes are during a 'new moon' phase. The new moon phase provide maximum darkness and stealth for a succesful surprise attack. It is a doctrine that the U.S. strictly adheres to. Past history confirms this. U.S. attacks for Gulf War 1 and 2 along with the Afghanistan conflict and also the Yugoslavian conflict of the 1990s all involved initial strikes during the new moon. It is believed by most military experts that Israel would also initially launch a surprise strike in similar manner and time frame.

 

We're more inclined to suspect that should Israeli leaders decide to take matters into their own hands, that the earliest time frames would be during the new moon phase in February. Of course, it is entirely possible that the information being leaked out about the U.S. holding Israel back from any strike in January, might just be disinformation designed to enable a sneak attack by the U.S. (and or Israel) to be successful. However, we tend to doubt this as the case, but then, there is such smoke and mirrors actions taking place that we prefer to not be dogmatic on any kind of scenarios or speculations. We'll just have to wait and see what develops.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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