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The A-O Intelligence Digest

For

January 1, 2012

 

Editor's Note: Background on our A-O rating status in December. 

Our alert status at The A-O Report has fluctuated between Yellow Alert and Orange Alert for the month of December due to a rising tide of news stories and saber-rattling remarks by key political and military leaders around the world. Our alert status was also affected by the Iranian downing of a US spy drone as well as US and Iranian navy movements. Often times, naval movements can signal either impending or the threat of military action. A final factor in our alert status was the timing of the new moon phase. Surprise military action in today’s world of modern warfare, more often than not, falls in the new moon phase as a way to ensure extra “stealth” and surprise during night time aerial attacks.

 

Our sources reported that the “window of opportunity” to successfully strike Iran’s key nuclear targets was rapidly shrinking. Why? Because Iran not only announced that they were moving key nuclear facilities to ‘safe,’ underground, bomb-proof bunkers, but that many key facilities had already been moved and enrichment processes were being accelerated.

 

We also reported that there were conflicting and mixed signals coming out of the Obama White House in regards to the military option. The inclination towards the military option seemed to be swaying with the wind. For a few days, a military option seemed to be “in-play” and then a few days later, the military option was discarded in favor of diplomacy and or resignation to live with a nuclear Iran. At the moment, the situation seems to be all about playing ‘mind games,’ but there are also other factors creating indecision.

 

To a great extent, this swaying of positions was due in part to the “internal politics” of the White House itself. President Obama is facing a daunting re-election challenge at a time when his “liberal base” shows stirring signs of disenchantment. Liberal pressures to avoid a military clash with Iran became extra strident within the White House advisory group, particularly a few key political advisors.

 

The flip-flopping has apparently played a critical role in preventing the Obama administration from embracing an imminent military attack. Indeed it has played a major role in holding back the Israelis from conducting their own surprise attack, by forcing the Obama White House to apply extreme pressure to Israeli leadership. Thus, we had serious doubts that Israel would take military action that would negatively affect relations with America. Still, Israeli leadership signaled the potential for imminent military action.

 

Indeed, new intelligence reports and Iranian announcements suggested Israel could not hold back much longer.

 

Given all of these we felt it was incumbent to maintain a yellow alert status for much of December and then give a slight upgrade to “Orange” just before Christmas, “just in case” Israel decided to “go it alone” with the military option – and/or – Iran or one of its proxy groups launched a pre-emptive military operation against Israel. Our real concern was that Syria might ‘start’ something, per warnings from Syria’s President Assad. Indeed, the Syrians conducted some menacing moves with their missiles and chemical warheads suggesting imminent military action.

 

Such moves proved to be merely a bluff to prevent international intervention within Syria’s developing revolution. We really expected any military action to be triggered by an Arab provocation as we approached Christmas, hence the “orange” alert designation.

 

Now that Christmas and the “new moon” phase has passed, we believe the odds for military action have dropped for at least a lunar month, with the next window of opportunity being in January of 2012. Any military action in this window would likely be triggered by Israel but we cannot rule out a pre-emptive action by Israel’s Arab neighbors.

 

How Much Longer Can a

Military Option Be Viable?

 

 

The viability for a successful military option employed by America or Israel depends largely on Iran and how fast Iran can move its remaining above-ground nuclear installations to the relative safety of underground facilities, plus how fast Iran can finish the weapons-grade enrichment processes to produce weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear warhead.

 

Just before Christmas, U.S. Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta revealed in a CBS-TV interview that the White House and Pentagon now believe there is a growing possibility that Iran could secretly build a first bomb or warhead within the next twelve months.

 

Panetta hinted it might even be sooner if there are other Iranian nuclear installations underground that the U.S. does not know about yet. He also intimated this as a distinct possibility. Panetta then underscored that under such a scenario, the Obama Administration would deem it necessary to conduct military operations to prevent Iran from building that first bomb.

 

To underscore the Defense Secretary’s remarks, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs gave a warning through a CNN interview confirming the Defense Secretary’s remarks and putting Iran on notice that the Pentagon was fully capable of and willing to destroy Iran’s nuclear program should Iran tempt America’s military resolve. America’s top general underscored the point that the Iranian downing of a spy drone would have no effect on the outcome of a military action against Iran.

 

At the same time, a former Obama White House defense advisor wrote an article for Foreign Affairs magazine advocating the need for military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. Foreign Affairs is a media outlet for the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) which is the spearhead think-tank for the New World Order and the Illuminati agenda of global government. His article was a clear signal that the Illuminati wants military action against Iran, sometime in 2012.

 

Combine the statements by these three figures and we interpret this as a clear signal of intent for an outbreak of war in 2012 in the Middle East. If anyone doubts the power and influence of the Council on Foreign Relations within the Obama Administration, one should consider the “off-the-cuff” remarks made by Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton when she addressed members of the CFR at a meeting and let it slip that the Obama Administration was heavily influenced by the Council. See this .

 

I think it is safe to conclude that Clinton’s remarks simply underscore the leadership role played by the CFR in conducting foreign policy by the Obama Administration. The remarks by Panetta and the Pentagon’s top general signaled an Administration agreement with the CFR has been reached. The military option will need to be implemented sooner or later, preferably sooner than later. Just how soon, remains a mystery, but it seems only logical to conclude a target date sometime before the end of 2012.

 

Iran’s Response to Illuminati Signals

 

Iran’s leadership is highly aware of the string-pulling situation within American and the “West.” The Iranian regime quickly responded by announcing a snap decision to implement a 10 day naval war games exercise in open international waters of the Indian Ocean. Iran also strongly suggested this exercise would demonstrate Iran’s ability to close off the vital oil route that runs through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wanted to underscore that Iran would not hesitate to close that vital passageway and trigger a global oil crisis should further sanctions be employed or should the military option be utilized.

 

The naval drills also underscored Iran’s intention to target not only Israeli, American and European interests, but also target it’s own neighbors including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other Persian Gulf nations.

 

 

Iran Moves to Dominate Iraq

 

At the same time, Iran also began maneuvering to take over control of Iraq as a “proxy” ally. Iraq’s government is and has been on shaky ground from its founding by U.S. forces during the interim period of 2004-2006.

As December began, Iran dispatched one of its top Ayatollah’s to Iraq’s holy Shiite sect regions to take control of the Shiite theological hierarchy, supported by Iraq’s premier Shiite militia forces of Muqtada al-Sadr known as the “Mahdi Militia.” It is perhaps the strongest military force in Iraq today and Sadr is extremely loyal to Tehran.

 

As the last of the U.S. troops pulled out of Iraq and the American flag was hauled down on December 18, the beginnings of a religious civil war in Iraq were about to unfold between the Shia and the Sunni sects of Islam. In less than a week after the U.S. troop pullout, a stunning series of terror bombings unfolded in one day. This signaled the start of sectarian strife that is bound to mushroom into a full-scale religious civil war in an effort to control Iraq.

 

Indeed, as the bombs exploded, Iraq’s Shiite Prime Minister was occupied with issuing arrest orders for Iraq’s Vice President who just happens to be a Sunni sect Muslim and a Kurd. The VP fled to the safety of the Kurdish provinces.

 

Meanwhile, to the south, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) a Sunni-group of Gulf nations met to plot and implement a strategy to counter Iran’s take-over attempt in Iraq. The Saudis, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar are particularly anxious to do whatever is necessary to halt Iran’s plans for control of Iraq. The GCC has been funneling money and weapons to Iraqi Sunni forces in preparation for violence on a scale far greater than when U.S. troops were stationed in Iraq.

 

An Iranian takeover of Iraq would give Iran a geographical ability to plant and to aim a ground-based military spear towards Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia putting those nations at a distinct military disadvantage, geographically speaking. A takeover of Jordan would put Iran directly up against Israel. This is the ultimate Iranian goal, so that Iran can wage a ground war against Israel to conquer Palestine without causing terminal radiation and allow Arab occupancy once again.

 

Many military and strategic analysts assert that a nuclear Iran would use a nuclear weapons inventory as a reason to keep Israel from using nuclear weapons against Iran. In other words, “nuking Israel” is a bluff by Iran. What Iran truly wants is an old fashioned ground conquest of Israel by the Iranian Army.

 

A takeover of Iraq is a necessary first-step towards that goal as well as a first step towards subduing the Sunni sect leaders in Saudi Arabia and the western side of the Persian Gulf. Once Israel is conquered, the Iranians believe all of Islam will bend to the will of a new Persian Empire and establish Shiite theology as the only acceptable form of Islam.

 

Iran Threatens To Close Strait of Hormuz

 

 

Iranian officials have twice warned the United States that any new sanctions that effect Iranian oil shipments will result in Iran seizing the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passageway between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. About 40% of all Persian Gulf region oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz aboard oil tankers.

 

The Strait of Hormuz is very narrow and at one point is just 21 miles across with much of that width too shallow for large tankers. Essentially, there are two channels for tankers, one for incoming and another for outgoing tankers, much like a two-lane highway. This is because much of the Strait’s depth is too shallow for the larger super-tankers to traverse. For this reason, the Strait of Hormuz can strategically act as a bottle-neck for maritime traffic.

 

The sudden talk of closing the Strait of Hormuz comes as a result of American moves to slap new sanctions against Iran, including sanctions against Iran’s oil shipments to other nations. Most diplomats and analysts interpret the Iranian warnings to nothing less than mere bluster and bluff. Why?

 

Should the Iranians overtly move to close the Strait of Hormuz, it would be an act of war against the world. Neither Russia, or China could defend such illegal Iranian actions in the court of international opinion at the UN. They would be forced to stand aside in a clamoring stampede by the world’s nations for military action against Iran. The United States and Western Allies would quickly muscle up a swift and comprehensive response that would provide a golden opportunity for military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities as well as reacquiring control of the Strait of Hormuz. No doubt it could also be used to bring about regime-change in Tehran.

 

For the above obvious reasons, the Iranian regime leadership is not so crazy as to give such a gifted destruction opportunity to America and the Western powers. This does not mean, however, that some sort of “incident” might take place that triggers major military action, as the Iranian navy continues its naval war drills into the first week of January. Even so, American brass at the Pentagon are not taking Iran’s hot air with a grain of salt.

Instead, the U.S. Navy’s 5^th Fleet has been placed on special alert for the possibility that Iran will sow a few mines into the Strait – hoping that a single incident could spark a shut down of the waterway. The Navy has activated a special task force trained in mine warfare. CTF-52 consists of the USS Arden, a mine counter-measures ship and the HMS Pembroke, a British mine-sweeper. The British destroyer, HMS Middleton will also assist along with two French mine warfare ships.

 

The U.S. also has deployed 2 Navy Battle Groups. The first is led by the USS John Stennis super-carrier battle group. The other is led by the USS Bataan amphibious battle group capable of conducting amphibious landings in the islands located within the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon is taking no chances on being caught flatfooted after the Iranians downed a U.S. unmanned spy drone in November.

Even with all of the Pentagon preparedness and special alert status, we expect nothing significant to develop at this time. We don't expect any attack against Iran until at least the next new moon phase and even then that is just speculation, yet we should not count out Syria's leadership from instigigating war in the first week or so in January.

However in the coming weeks ahead, all bets are off. The new round of sanctions embargoing Iranian oil and moves to embargo Iran’s Central Bank may well force the Iranians to “DO” something, as both measures could well bring down the regime as such measures could well torpedo Iran’s economy creating riots in the streets. By turning the situation into a “war” – the Iranian politicians and religious zealots can appeal to the patriotism of the typical Iranian to stand up and fight the West. Under such a scenario, the regime might have a chance to last longer. Of course, this assumes President Obama and his allies do follow through and make good on their threats of such sanctions

 

The Syrian Situation

 

 

The Syrian government has finally allowed the Arab League to send in monitors to observe the violent clashes of the Syrian revolt. However, the man in charge of the observer project is a General in the Sudanese Army who was responsible for a bloody and brutal crackdown in the Sudan. More than likely, he will oversee the operation in such a manner as to clear the Syrian regime for a continuation of its bloody crackdown.

 

There are continued moves afoot behind the scenes by key Arab nations such as Qatar, The UAE, and Saudi Arabia to continue supporting and equipping Syrian revolutionaries for a long, drawn-out campaign that could take months to bring about regime-change in Syria.

 

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