A-O Intelligence Digest 12-16-11
|
The A-O Intelligence Digest:
12-16-11
Wars and Rumors of Wars:
War Tensions Extremely High Behind Closed Doors
As we go to press, geo-political tensions and pressures for war have reached a near fever pitch on many different fronts. War could break out in a variety of different ways. The shooting could start between Iran and the West or perhaps Syria will spark something. So to could Hezbollah and or Hamas. On the flip side, Turkey could take on Israel in some bizarre incident. Or the flames of war could erupt first in Iraq as the last US troops pull out of Iraq. If that’s not enough to keep your mind busy, consider the possibility of Pakistan starting a war with the U.S. over incursions into Pakistani air space. Yet, Pakistani officials also are warning that there is an imminent threat of nuclear war between Pakistan and India. To round out war scenarios, consider the possibility of North Korea starting something with South Korea.
What we do know is that there is a lot of tension behind closed doors in Washington and not merely in regard to the Middle East. There is a tremendous amount of tension in high circles concerning the global financial crisis and the imminent collapse of the European Union.
The U.S. Spy Drone Debacle
Iran Lands a Major Victory with Drone Downing
More than a week has passed since the incident involving the downing of an unmanned United States aerial drone over Iran. Details of how it happened are still sketchy, in part because U.S. military experts are not certain of just how the drone was captured by Iran.
Former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton in a Fox TV interview stated his suspicion was that Russia played a major role in capturing the drone intact. TV news channels echoed such suspicions although no one within the Obama Administration has publicly gone on the record regarding any such speculations.
Over the weekend, Debka.com reported that the decision to take down the drone was not made by Iranian regime leaders, but rather from leaders in a foreign capital, hinting that it was Moscow giving the orders. There are various hypotheses as to how the aircraft was taken down, but computer hacking is believed to have played a major role in capturing the aircraft. A report surfaced on Thursday (12/15) indicating that the drone was the victim of a “hack” attack.
Our own speculations at A-O take into account leaked reports from several years ago in which the Pentagon discovered deliberate design changes in certain computer chips made by Red China. According to a Canadian journalist with well-established contacts in the Pentagon, Red Chinese computer chip makers provided the U.S. military with computer chips that had a ‘back-door’ capability to allow Red Chinese military experts to open up the computer system and shut down key components or redirect/retarget weapons systems.
This discovery by the Pentagon prompted a secret review of all military appropriations involving computer chips, including and especially aircraft and missiles. Elements of the problem have surfaced in the past couple of years as the U.S. Air Force investigated mysterious problems with some of its frontline jet fighters including the F-16 and F-18’s manufactured after the year 2000. One of the problems involved pilots losing consciousness due to computer-related issues of not providing a healthy mix of oxygen at critical moments.
After extensive investigations, the USAF recently concluded that the problem was related to malfunctioning computer chips that improperly designed. The Air Force did not release specific technical details of the problem, but given the prior Chinese ‘back-door’ issues which the Pentagon discovered only in the past 3 years, it seems very plausible that the drones may have been equipped with these spurious Chinese computer chips. If so, then Red China may have had their hands involved in downing the plane.
As we go to press, an Iranian engineer boasted that the drone was known to have a vulnerability that was used to trick the drone into landing in Iran. See LINK HERE. This confession compliments the idea we’ve proposed that the Chinese provided the technology by sharing the computer chip vulnerability they created in the manufacture and sale of such chips to the Pentagon electronic aircraft component manufacturers.
The RQ-170 It’s Importance:
The RQ-170 drone is an aircraft utilizing some of the most advanced stealth, surveillance and counter-electronics in the world. It’s capture contains a treasure trove of secrets that can be unlocked by Iran, China and Russia. Among the most sensitive elements for discovery, (aside from the stealth technology) is the high quality of photographic imaging but perhaps most importantly, the Iranians can find out what kind of bombing targets are of interest to the U.S. This gives the Iranians a heads-up on what targets to evacuate or to beef up air defenses.
Downing Drone Hampers Military Action Against Iran
Once the Iranians know what targets the U.S. is most interested in, the Iranians can evacuate those targets to safer subterranean mountain facilities and or place extra defenses to protect a target.
This means that the drone has taken away America’s chances for the element of “surprise.” By sharing the drone technology with Russia, Iran stands to gain the new Russian S-300 air defense systems, which are said to be nearly invulnerable to enemy action and capable of knocking down 100 U.S. planes at a time. Some strategists conclude that with S-300 air defenses, Iran becomes invulnerable to even a U.S. attack but certainly invulnerable to an Israeli attack.
Because targeting information has fallen into Iranian hands, the consensus at the White House is to cancel any military action and learn to live with a nuclear Iran, despite Obama’s contentions that the military option remains “on the table.”
Covert War is First Casualty?
With the downing of the U.S. drone, the Obama Administration is re-thinking it’s idea of engaging in cover war with not only Iran but other hotspots. The Pentagon is deeply disturbed about foreign nations acquiring super-secret technology from the Iranian capture of a U.S. drone.
Publicly, the Pentagon is revealing very little information about the drone incident, in part because the Pentagon “knows” very little but there are lots of hypothesis being floated around behind closed doors. Until the Pentagon understands the facts surrounding the loss of the drone, the military brass are highly recommending that such covert activities cease.
At the White House, national security team members are equivocating on other covert activities, particularly those involving Iran. The preliminary conclusion reportedly suggests that the U.S. halt all covert activities inside Iran, at least temporarily while an overall re-assessment is made of the Iranian situation.
Drone Incident Collapses Israel’s Trust in USA
As Israeli leaders learned the details of the drone incident and Obama’s decision to avoid a military confrontation with Iran, Israeli leaders are now convinced that Obama will never take military action against Iran.
The Netanyahu government now realizes that President Obama cannot be trusted to keep his word, particularly concerning the military option for Iran. With this understanding, Irael’s leaders now realize that if there is to be a military strike it is likely going to have to be Israel that does it, and it will have to be sooner rather than later but probably not too soon.
Bankrupt USA Impacts Pentagon Budget for War
One of the aspects of military action which the White House must take into account is the cost of such action. There is no money in the federal budget for a new war. The United States has simply run out of money New budget proposals being argued in Congress indicate that major cutbacks are in the works for the Defense Department and the Pentagon would be hard pressed to conduct any bombing operations against Iran.
Window For Israel Wide Open For Short While
With the U.S. forces leaving Iraq, the nation of Iraq has no way to enforce its airspace or stop Israeli warplanes from using Iraqi air space to conduct air strikes into Iran. U.S Air Force protection expires on December 31 and after that, the U.S. will not legally be in a position to halt Israeli over-flights of Iraqi airspace. This is great news for Israeli strike planners. Why?
The most direct air route or corridor between Israel and Iran runs straight east from Israel and over Jordan and Iraq. As long as U.S. Air Force jets secured Iraqi air space and without prior permission from Washington and the Iraqi government, Israeli warplanes could not fly over Iraqi airspace. In 2012, Israeli aircraft will have a much shorter route to reach Iranian nuclear targets. That leaves one real question left for Israeli leaders. Can Israel wait until 2012 for military action?
From a public perspective, Israeli leaders, especially the Israeli Defense Minister have stated that there is no immediate need for military strikes on Iran. Of course that notion is based upon the idea that Iran is not days or weeks away from building a bomb.
A shooting war between Israel and Hezbollah or Syria or Hamas could change the entire equation in the short term, creating a need for Israel to strike Iran before the end of 2011.
However, even without a shooting war with Israel’s neighbors allied with Tehran, Iran’s latest announcement about its nuclear program strongly signals time is rapidly running out for effective military action. For more on the aspect of Iraqi air space. LINK HERE.
In a related, late development: Israel has announced the formation of a new command group for “long-range” military operations – think Iran. This suggests that Israel may be contemplating “boots on the ground” inside Iran for future military operations. See the Haaretz newspaper article, LINK HERE.
From what we can gather from various intelligence sources, particularly our Israeli contacts, it is more likely that Israel will not launch overt military operations against Iran in December unless Hezbollah, Syria or Hamas launch major military actions in the coming days ahead. It seems Israel has a few more organizational “loose ends” to take care of, plus awaiting the clearance of U.S. air assets guarding Iraqi air space until the end of the year.
Iran Switches to Underground Facilities
On Wednesday (12/14) Iranian officials announced that a major underground facility was nearing a start up of advanced uranium enrichment production. The facility is located deep inside a mountain near the holy city of Qom. The facility is named Fordo and the Iranians consider it to be “bomb-proof.”
However, large nuclear weapons could theoretically destroy or severely damage the facility, but it is unlikely that even America’s largest ‘bunker-buster’ bombs could destroy or severely damage the facility.
Iran has completed construction of an underground nuclear enrichment facility deep inside a mountain near the holy city of Qom. This new facility is being equipped with a new generation of high-speed enrichment centrifuges able to quickly turn commercial-grade uranium into weapon's grade quality within a matter of weeks.
On September 19, the head of Iran's nuclear program, Fereydoun Abbasi stated that 20 percent uranium enrichment would start at the Fordo site (mountain facility) within six months. U.S. officials are reporting that 2 new cascades of 174 centrifuges each is close to the start of production. Within a matter of weeks, Iran could enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for 4 to 5 bombs. This means Iran could have 4 to 5 nuclear bomb materials ready for assembly by the start of spring, or perhaps a bit sooner.
Iran's head of Civil Defense reports that Iran may also move all of its above-ground uranium enrichment facilities to completed underground installations in the very near future as a response to military threats from Israel, the U.S. and Europe. The news comes from the government-run Mehr News Agency.
Close Consultations:
Media reports indicate that U.S. officials are in close consultation with American allies as well as with international nuclear inspectors concerning the sensitive nature of the activities at the Fordo mountain installation. Obama officials note that such developments will violate UN Security Council resolutions.
Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak jumped aboard a plane for Washington for consultations with the Obama Administration and congressional leaders.
On Wednesday, (12/14) former Presidential Advisor to Obama, Dennis Ross stated that Israel has every reason to be concerned about the new developments at the Qom enrichment facility. Ross stated that there is no justification for Iran to harden its nuclear facilities as well as other activities related to possible weaponization of nuclear power.
Ross stated that these are factors that "affect the Israeli calculus and ours." Even so, Ross cautioned that because IAEA inspectors go to nearby facilities in Qom, "I would not isolate Qom and say this alone is the Israeli red-line" to trigger military action. However, reports out of Israel indicate intense alarm within the Netanyahu government.
It is worth noting that last month, the UN's IAEA reported that Iran had moved a large cylinder of 5% enriched uranium from the Natanze fuel enrichment plant to the Fordo mountain facility near Qom. The IAEA noted a month ago that there are some program operations that serve no other purpose other than for weapons work.
One former UN expert, David Albright stated during an interview on Wednesday (12/14) that Israel is more concerned about Iran's plan to triple the rate of enrichment by installing a new generation of centrifuges at Fordo. He noted that until now, Iran's program has gone slower than expected, due to building and operating issues perhaps due to sabotage or a computer virus like Stuxnet.
Iran’s War Games – Closing the Strait of Hormuz
Last week Iranian officials announced a new round of naval ‘war games’ maneuvers that would take place this week. These maneuvers were designed to show how fast Iran could seize control of the Strait of Hormuz. Such seizure would enable the Iranians to shut off the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world.
The announcement set off a buzz in world capitals around the globe, fearful that perhaps Iran would do more than just conduct a war game, but rather make it the first step in a war against the international community. The Iranian naval drill announcement set off a chain reaction response from the U.S. which included U.S. Navy warship deployments.
U.S. Aircraft Carrier Movements
As a result of the Iranian announcement for naval drills, the White House and the Pentagon ordered additional U.S. Navy aircraft carrier battle groups to sea. The USS Carl Vinson was ordered to deploy to the Western Pacific Ocean to join the 7th Fleet. The USS Abraham Lincoln was also ordered out into the Western Pacific to patrol waters in the Middle East. There have been reports that other carriers were on temporary standby to see whether or not the Iranian naval exercises were in fact just exercises or the start of a shooting war. As we understand it, after the Iranian naval exercise ended, the U.S. carriers were removed from standby status.
Pakistan & Drones:
The Pakistani military has moved mobile air defenses into the border region with Afghanistan. The move speaks loudly of Pakistan’s intent to shoot down any U.S. or NATO aircraft violating Pakistani air space. Meanwhile, a Pakistani official warned last week that a nuclear war with India was inevitable and would likely happen sooner rather than later. Pakistani militancy against the outside world is growing and could soon pose a major problem for stability to the region.
Pakistan’s Prez Suffers Stroke
Pakistan’s President Zardari suffered a stroke last week and was hospitalized. His illness underscores the fragile nature now existing within the Pakistani government. The status quo is wobbling and Pentagon officials are concerned that radical Islamists will soon take control of the nation or at least take control of some or all of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons arsenal.
Syrian Situation
U.S. Troops leaving Iraq are being re-positioned to the Jordan-Syrian Border. We understand that elements of the 82nd Airborne division were recently moved out of Iraq’s western province of Anbar and transported to a Jordanian airbase near the Syrian border, directly opposite a Syrian build up of armored tanks that were recently rushed to the border. Analysts viewed the Syrian move as a potential threat to invade Jordan as a way to ‘blow up’ the Middle East, just as Syria’s President Assad has repeatedly vowed to do if there was any further foreign interference in Syria’s internal affairs.
Establishing a No-Fly Zone?
The Obama Administration is strongly considering the idea of establishing a “No-Fly” zone over Syrian air space, much akin to what was established over Libya earlier this year. Under the proposed scheme, the U.S. would provide logistical and back up support to war planes and pilots from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the nation of Qatar.
It remains unclear as to whether Saudi aircraft might participate. As we post this, we understand that no decision one way or the other has been made on the proposal. More details, LINK HERE.
Syrian Missile Threats
As we go to posting, there have been reports that Syria has posted an array of Scud ballistic missiles in northern Syria, pointing towards Turkey. Additional reports claim indications that some of the missiles have been fitted with chemical or biological warfare warheads. What we do know is that according to Turkish media outlets, Turkey is in a state of war preparedness and ready for whatever Syria may decide to unleash. Debka.com reports that 21 Syrian mobile missile launchers have been deployed including 5 of them Scud D missiles topped with chemical warheads. Debka also reports that more Syrian missiles are ‘on the way.’ LINK HERE for the Debka report.
Syria Deploys Coastal Defense Missiles
Russian Aircraft Carrier Flotilla to Syria
Last week, Syria received a shipment of Yakhont shore-to-ship missiles from Russia to defend against enemy naval forces that might attempt amphibious landings. The shipment was immediately rushed into coastal deployment operations and are reportedly now in place. Also included in the Russian shipment were 3 million gas masks. LINK HERE for details. Also, Russian media reports indicate that a Russian aircraft carrier battle group is now preparing to head for the Syrian port of Tartarus to “show the flag” and hopefully prevent any outside military intervention in Syria.
Moscow Optimizes its Southern Military Forces
There are reports that Russia is preparing its southern military forces for a reaction to any U.S. or Israeli military strikes against Iran. It’s unclear as to whether or not Russia would actually come to the aid of Iran with military intervention should Iran come under air strikes. We suspect that Russia would only react if a large number of ground forces invaded Iran. For more on this – LINK HERE.
Russia Calls for UN Action on Syria
In a move to pre-empt any Western or Arab military intervention in Syria, Russia presented a draft resolution to the UN Security Council on Thursday (12/15). The resolution presents a stinging rebuke to the Assad regime and calls for an end to the Assad crackdown on protesters.
The surprise move by Russia to distance itself from the Syrian regime and yet defend the nation with military equipment is based on the public relations aspect of the crisis. It has become exceedingly clear that the Assad regime’s bloody crackdown is not sitting well with the international community. Russian leaders realize that they cannot associate themselves too closely with Assad to avoid sharing in the negativity Assad has created.
At the moment, Russia’s primary fear is that the “West” will keep gobbling up geography and remove Russia’s military customers. Syria has been a major customer for Russian weapons for many years.
EU Collapsing?
Just a short note on the European Union’s financial crisis: Britain’s Prime Minister vetoed a proposed EU treaty modifying the original EU treaty in order to address the financial melt-down now underway throughout Europe. The new treaty proposed to surrender more national sovereignty to the EU umbrella government and the EU Central Bank in order to shore up the Euro currency.
The British move has set off an angry response from both France and Germany and left many wondering what will become of the EU. Many international investment experts are of the opinion that it is now only a matter of time before the Euro collapses. There are rumors that such a collapse will come before the end of the year, but we’ve been hearing similar such warnings all year and yet the EU continues to cling to life. At some point, however, the EU is destined to collapse, to make way for a new political organization of 10 members that comprise much of the same territory as that of the old Roman Empire. We may well see such a formation develop in 2012.
Intel Tidbits:
Iran Steel Mill Sabotage?
An Iranian Steel Mill suffered a mysterious explosion on Sunday. The newly built steel mill is believed to be supplying special steel for the manufacture of centrifuges used enrich uranium and ballistic missile components. At the time of the explosion, there were reports of a team of North Korean nuclear scientists visiting the facility. Israeli sources indicate that the blast was likely caused by Israeli Mossad spy agents. For more on this story – LINK HERE – and also more – LINK HERE.
-