Updated Rumors & War Speculations 11-25-11
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Special Intelligence Advisory:
Updated Rumors & War Speculations
11/25/11
The Latest Intelligence + Rumors & Speculations
This week, the speculations and rumors of war have reached a crescendo around the Internet, but Israeli news stories concerning any sort of ‘imminent’ attack(s) on Iran’s nuclear facilities have vanished. The sudden silence from Israel is deafening and suggests that military action may indeed be about to unfold in the coming days and weeks left in 2011.
We had been hearing reports from Israeli sources suggesting that the Netanyahu Administration was on the verge of ordering military action against Iran, but most reputable analysts have speculated that before Israel tackles Iran, the IDF would need to take out Hamas and Hezbollah first.
Another negative factor that is perhaps holding back Israeli military action is the upheaval in Syria. Israel’s leaders may wish to wait and see what unfolds first in Syria. A regime change in Damascus might make it easier for Israel to tackle Hezbollah and Hamas after Assad is removed as it now seems likely – sooner or later.
Western Powers are now ramping up pressure on Syria’s regime, but Russia is now ramping up counter-pressure on Western Powers in order to save one of Russia’s better weapons buyers. This week, 3 Russian warships arrived alongside the Syrian coastline in the Mediterranean Sea. These warships are said to be capable of taking out U.S. and NATO anti-missile defense shields and their command/control centers in Turkey. The Russians ships are rumored to also be unloading new anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems along with Russian technicians in order to provide a better air defense for Syria, should the West decide to duplicate in Syria what was done over Libyan skies.
Additionally, Russia has activated missile units in Europe for combat alert with orders to be ready to take out U.S. anti-missile defense shields at a moment’s notice from the Kremlin. In other words, Russia is signaling its intentions to defend Syria and Iran should a military clash breakout with either Israel or the U.S. and NATO.
The Russian missile moves would mean that Russia would attempt to strip away missile defenses in Europe to allow Iran the ability to destroy large chunks of Eastern and Central Europe as well as the Middle East and Israel. Such Iranian missile strikes would be in retaliation for any strikes against Iran or Syria.
What we see developing is a very complicated, complex, geo-political chess match taking place with one chess match between the USA/West and Russia and other match between the USA/West and Iran, another with Syria.
Of course there is another chess match with Israel versus Iran as well as Syria plus Hezbollah and Hamas. Each chess match is then interconnected to the other matches making it very difficult for observers to follow and understand the complexities that develop in these inter-related matches, particularly if looking at these events with a view towards Biblical Prophecies.
Rumors and Speculations
There have been some alarming rumors the past few days featuring all sorts of military actions to take place this week and weekend. So far such speculations and rumors have been ill-founded. One particular rumor and speculation was based upon Hezbollah and IDF movements and responses. Both forces are reportedly on heightened alert.
Curiously, another mystery explosion took place in Lebanon destroying a Hezbollah ammunition depot that was located in a highly secure sector being supervised by the United Nations peacekeeper force. Hezbollah has been quiet about the incident and publicly filing it as an unfortunate accident. There are rumors and speculations swirling around the incident suggesting that the explosion was triggered by Israel using super secret technology. There is also speculation that some “out-of-this-world” technology could/would be employed against Israel’s enemies by either Israel or the United States.
Other circulating rumors involve Iran announcing that it has developed a nuclear weapon. Such an announcement would be expected within the next two weeks despite the fact that no one has recorded any type of nuclear test explosions in Iran, although a 5.4 magnitude earthquake was reported last month in Pakistan. Some speculations are that the Pakistan shaker was in fact a nuclear test, which might have been a joint test with Iran.
Other rumors and speculations revolve around the idea that Iran has a nuclear arsenal purchased on the black market from old Soviet-era nuclear weapons and or purchased from Pakistan or even from China. We seriously doubt China sold Iran any nukes and figure it highly unlikely Iran has any Pakistani nukes, but there is documentation that Iran obtained Soviet-era KH-55 nuclear-capable cruise missiles. The only question is whether or not the KH-55 missiles also had nuclear warheads at the time of sale and delivery.
Some former Soviet generals have revealed that perhaps several dozen nuclear back-pack weapons were lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Speculation has abounded that Iran purchased at least some of these portable nukes from the black market in the early 1990s.
Ambassador Bolton’s Comments:
Former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. under President George W. Bush, John Bolton stated as recently as Thursday, (11/24) that he expects Iran to soon announce that it has a developed nuclear weapon. His remarks have led to speculation that Iran’s Supreme Ayatollah Khamenei will soon announce Iran has developed nuclear weapons. Such an announcement would be used to convince the world that it is too late to further punish Iran with sanctions or military action, thus hoping the world will learn to live with a nuclear Iran. Would such an announcement halt plans for an Israeli military strike on Iran? It is hard to say because Israeli leaders have not commented on such a possibility.
The Syrian Factor:
Given Russia’s latest actions, we find it hard to believe that the West will intervene militarily against Syria’s President Assad and risk a confrontation with Russia. Even so, an internal rebel campaign by Syrian Army deserters seems more than likely to eventually force regime change but only when Syria’s military leaders decide its time for Assad to resign. Such an event may come sooner, rather than later.
It is always possible that Assad will make a desperate move to attack Israel and start a war. Such an action could come at any time, but the Syrian military is so decimated by the rebellion that Syrian forces would simply be no match for Israel.
Hezbollah and Israel
On the other hand, Hezbollah would pose a serious challenge to Israel unless or until Israeli leaders take off the kid gloves and wages an all-out war on Hezbollah. Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it clear that the IDF will not be hamstrung by outside restrictions from the UN and would give carte blanche to the IDF to destroy Hezbollah any way it must.
As we go to posting, rumors persist that sometime this weekend, Hezbollah will attack Israel. We stress these as merely rumors and speculations, but they cannot be totally dismissed out of hand.
Even so, given the situation in Syria and with Iran, we doubt Iran will give Hezbollah any orders to attack Israel until/unless the time is right and that may not be in the next few days.
Hamas and Israel
At the same time, Israel would also deal with Hamas in the Gaza Strip without any restrictions. Thus, the way would be paved for Israel to take on Iran directly after eliminating Iran’s proxy forces on Israel’s borders.
Longer Range Speculations:
We’re more inclined to think any outbreak of war will occur in mid to late December during Hanukkah in fulfillment with certain Jewish rabbinical interpretations of Ezekiel’s Magog prophecies which suggest that the end of the Magog war will transpire during Hanukkah.
Other intelligences sources report that the window of opportunity for striking Iran is shrinking rapidly and dependant upon how fast Iran’s nuclear program continues. Analysts speculate that Iran’s first homemade nuclear bomb could be forthcoming as early as February or as late as mid-summer or early fall.
As we’ve reported in the past, the White House is still considering the idea of a strike on Iran for sometime ranging between mid-summer and early October and thus perhaps creating a surprise for the 2012 elections.
For Israel, the latest reports suggest Israel’s Netanyahu will delay no longer than June or as early as the end of March for military action against Iran, but IDF forces may swing into action within days to deal with Hezbollah and Hamas.
Editor's Note:
We anticipate a new A-O Intelligence Digest by Tuesday and perhaps on Monday along with our regular weekly news features so stay tuned this weekend and next week for more news, analysis, and prophecy studies information as it develops and as we’re able to provide it.
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