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AO Intel Digest

Special Report

Bizarre Mideast Events Unfolding

10-12-11

Bizarre events are unfolding this week in both the Middle East and Washington.
On Tuesday, (10/11/11) the United States Attorney General, Eric Holder announced
that the FBI and Homeland Security had uncovered and foiled a bizarre terror plot
to stage a terror strike to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States.

The Attorney General alleged that the plot was masterminded by elements of the Iranian Government utilizing a branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps known as The Quds Brigade. The Quds Brigade acts as a foreign arm of the Revolutionary Guards.

According to the Obama Administration, the plot included an Iranian American
working with a Quds Brigade liaison in a joint effort to hire assassins from a Mexican
drug cartel to perhaps stage a spectacular bombing incident at a Washington, D.C.
area restaurant or hotel, where U.S. lawmakers as well as the Saudi diplomat might
be present.

Federal investigators reported that the Iranian America was arrested at the end of
September as he was attempting to fly to Mexico to make final arrangements for the
plot. His Iranian counterpart remains at large, presumably in Iran. There are many
elements to this story that seem to make little sense, raising questions about the
legitimacy of the charges, suggesting there may be more or less to this story than
meets the eye.

 

Elevens Are Wild?

The first thing that caught our attention was the timing of this story. It was made
public on 10-11-11, a date that occult numerologists view as having occult power
or significance. The plot itself was foiled with the apprehension of the Iranian
American on September 29 when a Texas used car salesman, Manssor Arbabsiar,
age 56, was arrested at New York’s JFK airport after being removed from a plane
that was turned around from its intended destination in Mexico City. Authorities
noted that the plot had been developing for months and that President Obama had
first been informed of the plot back in June. So why wait until 10/11/11 to go
public with the story?

Besides the possible numerological-occult significance, we can point to the falling
popularity of the President and a desire for maximum public relations benefits at
almost the same hour as a potential election opponent, Mitt Romney was set to
announce a significant endorsement for his candidacy by New Jersey Governor
Christie. It also came on the heels of a Congressional subpoena for the Attorney
General to testify before a Congressional committee concerning a politically
dangerous, developing scandal that implies the possibility that the Attorney
General lied before Congress. The developing scandal poses the real possibility
of becoming another “Watergate” that could bring down the Obama presidency.

 

Have the Iranians Lost Their Minds?

Besides the timing element, there are questions about the legitimacy of the plot itself. Several experts, including former CIA analysts have expressed doubts that the
plot was set in motion by the Iranian government leadership or even involved
the Quds Brigade. The very nature of the story, suggests a modus operandi that
is uncharacteristic of The Quds force. The story also portrays a level of ineptitude
that is equally uncharacteristic of the Iranians.

Furthermore, the plot provides little or no real gain for the Iranian government
But certainly a great deal of risk for discovery and embarrassment and as such
a risk that a normally, very cautious Iranian government would not make.

As if that were not enough, if the Iranians wanted to take out the Saudi diplomat
they could do so, more easily inside Saudi Arabia with far less risk of an
international incident that could trigger a war with the United States.

 

 Iran Backstabs Its Allies?

Something else, that we find equally odd, which transpired on the same days as
this plot was being announced, were two financial news developments announced
by Iran.

Iran announced that is was canceling an energy deal with Russia’s state-owned
Gazprom energy company. The deal involved Gazprom developing Iranian oil
and natural gas fields. It was a lucrative contract for Russia as part of an ongoing
effort to solicit Russian military weapons and assistance against any military
action by Israel or the United States. The cancellation undercuts Russian motivation
to provide continued support for Iranian defensive capabilities. Yet this deal was
matched by another “bizarre” move by Iran involving China.

Iran said it had suspended a contract with China's National Petroleum Corporation International (CNPCI) for development of its North Pars gas field "until further notice.” Iran cited it’s displeasure with the slowness of development.

Once again, Iran has undercut the motivation for China to provide diplomatic
support and protection for Iran’s nuclear program. In exchange for Chinese support
and protection for Iran’s nuclear program, China is paid back in energy products
such as oil and natural gas to fuel China’s robust industrial production. China
chose Iran over Saudi Arabia for energy supplies because Iran offered China some
“sweetheart” deals, underbidding Saudi Arabia. With the Iranian cancellation, a
significant chunk of Chinese motivation has been removed.

Suddenly, Russia and China find their relationship with Iran financially diminished
and thereby decreasing their motivation for continuing to support what might be
perceived as an increasingly unstable and unreliable partnership with Iran.

The aftermath of the uncovered terror plot is a renewed U.S. effort to enforce
U.N. sanctions being ignored by Russia and China as well as develop harsh, new
sanctions against Iran. Both Russia and China may look more favorably towards
cooperating with the U.S. as a result of the terror plot combined with Iran’s slap
in the face to both nations.

Now, if all of this were not enough to make you wonder, we add the following
additional element to this strangely developing story.

 

Israel & Hamas Make a Deal?

As the U.S. government went public with the plot, Israel announced a deal had
been reached with Hamas involving the release of an Israeli soldier captured
by Hamas back in June of 2006. It was an event that preceded the summer war
between Israel and Hezbollah. For more than five years, Israel has been trying
to swing a deal for the release of Gilad Shalit. Finally, the two sides agreed to
terms in which 1,000 Palestinian prisoners (including mass murders) would
be released in exchange for Shalit. The logistics of the swap are even now being
worked out for a reported swap in the next few days.

Part of the deal between Hamas and Israel is that Hamas will sever its ties with
Iran. Suddenly, Iran finds itself losing a ‘proxy’ army akin to Hezbollah. Iran
had invested large sums of money and war material in Hamas. Now all of that
appears to be in jeopardy as Hamas appears to be ready to jettison its alliance
with Iran even as it now positions itself to take control of the entire Palestinian
movement, replacing its nemesis, the Palestinian Authority and the PLO/Fatah.

Yet even as this new development tries to unfold, the United States announced
a new “terror” warning to Americans traveling abroad. The warning to Americans
traveling abroad says that Iran may attempt to retaliate for uncovering the terror
plot. Oddly enough, the new travel warning will remain in effect until 1/11/12.

So what does this have to do with the Israeli-Hamas deal? Israeli authorities are
now concerned that, given the new circumstances, an irrational Iranian regime
may lash out in an effort to squash the Israeli-Hamas deal that will cut Iran out of
the loop for influence and render Iran incapable of preventing an eventual peace
deal between Israel and the Palestinians. Therefore, Israel is concerned that Iran
may trigger some sort of terror incident.

Some Israeli experts conclude that Iran is acting as though it is under threat of
war. Iran also sees its influence and potential leadership as a regional power
broker now hanging in the balance. Suddenly, Iran’s leaders see their nation being
marginalized and no longer in a leadership role within Islam. Israeli analysts
suspect that Iran will not allow this without a fight of some sort.

On a side note, Washington was perturbed to find the Netanyahu government
announcing the prisoner swap before the fact, knowing that Iran could easily
torpedo such a deal with an act of terror.

With all of these interlocking elements now brewing, the stage appears set for
further tumult in the Middle East and a greater possibility for eventual,
military action. The rest of this year promises to be very topsy-turvy and
confusing if not much, much more.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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