An A-O Special Report

YELLOW ALERT:

Lebanon in Crisis

Hezbollah Quits Coalition Government

Israeli Military on High Alert

Editor's Note: This page is a compilation of news stories related to the developing crisis in Lebanon that threatens to ignite a war in the Middle East. We've been warning A-O Readers of this potential problem for the past year and now it appears to have reached critical mass.  In Yellow Alert mode we will post new updates as needed throughout the week ahead as conditions warrant. For our A-O Donor's, we'll be featuring special intelligence and background in our donor's section - "The A-O Insider Report" in our weekly A-O Intelligence Digest. Look for additional updates throughout the week in the donor's section as conditions warrant.

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Lebanese Gov't Collapses
Hezbollah Pulls Out of Gov't

Expecting UN To Arrest its Key Leaders

Concerns Mount Over Possible

Coup or Civil War in Lebanon


LINK 1
Great Summary of Situation

LINK 2

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UN Lebanon Tribunal Report
To Be Released on Monday

LINK

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UN Indictments of Hezbollah "Imminent"
Reuters Newswire Report

LINK

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Iran's Supreme Leader & Syria's Prez
Along with Top Hezbollah Leaders
For 2005 Assassination Plot

The Jerusalem Post has posted an article citing UN leaks as indicating the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) will show evidence indicating that the Supreme Ayatollah of Iran ordered (in 2005) the assassination of Lebanon's Prime MInister Rafik Hariri. Reports have also surfaced the the UN investigators have evidence that Syria's President Assad was also involved along with key Hezbollah leaders.

For more on this this story, LINK HERE. The A-O Intelligence Digest edition is featuring more behind-the-scenes information about the UN STL investigations along with the future implications for a showdown between Hezbollah, Iran and Syria versus Israel, the U.S. and the EU.

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Turkey To Hold Crisis Summit
Over the Lebanese Crisis
With Officials from Syria and Qatar

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan will hold a triune summit with Syria's President Assad and Qatar's Emir on Monday as part of an effort to find a way to resolve the political crisis in Lebanon after the collapse of the Lebanase government, last week. For more on this story, LINK HERE.

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Lebanon's Army Chief Meets Iran's Ambassador

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Lebanon on Verge of Civil War?

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Hezbollah Chief Says No Civil War

Hezbollah's top chieftain, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah announced that there will be no civil war in Lebanon between Shi'a and Sunni Muslims. Nasrallah stated: 

"There will never be a war between the Sunnis and Shi'ites. We will calculate our steps."

Nasrallah explained why Hezbollah pulled out of the coalition government stating that the.."

"expected result of the international tribunal for the former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri is aimed at the resistance," or in other words at Hezbollah, which considers itself to be a resistance movement, not a terrorist organization.

Hezbollah announced it will no longer be a part of any government where Prime Minister Saad Harriri is the Prime Minister.

You can read more on this from an Israeli perspective with the Jerusalem Post article - LINK HERE.

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Hezbollah Won't Allow PM To Continue
PM Harriri Must Be Forced Out
But Harriri Rejects Resignation Demands

LINK

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Israeli Troops On Alert
After Lebanese Gov't Collapses

LINK

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UNIFIL Troops on Israeli-Lebanon Border
Now Limiting Border Patrols
As Lebanese Crisis Develops

UNIFIL Troops have been ordered to stay in their barracks and halt border patrols for the time being, according to an A-O Report intel source. UNIFIL is apparently concerned that a UN indictment of Hezbollah might lead to retaliation against UN troops on the border. UNIFIL may also be concerned that Hezbollah will lash out with a rocket bombardment of Israel that will trigger an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. For more details on the UNIFIL pull back, LINK HERE.

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IDF Commander Warns:
Tel Aviv Will Be Target in Next War

LINK

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Hezbollah in No Hurry To Spark War

Israeli Analysis LINK

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Next Israeli-Arab War
Could Begin in Beirut

LINK

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Mideast Meltdown?
Washington Post Analysis

The Washington Post weighs in on the latest developments in the Middle East and notes that Hezbollah and Hamas have amassed tens of thousands of rockets for use against Israel and notes that: "the chances that the region will survive another year without their use are looking slimmer."

The Post article goes on to note that the White House not only has to worry about war between Israel and her next-door neighbors but must also carefully deal with the potential for revolutions across the region. Tunisia's latest developments are the most prominent concern for the moment, but Egypt is on the verge of potential regime change. Other Mideast nations near a tipping point include Pakistan and Iraq is very unstable. Even Saudi Arabia could see trouble in the near future as an elderly King's poor health raises questions about his future successor. Other small sheikdoms on the Arabian Peninsula along with nations like Yemen are in danger of collapse.

The Washington Post story is worth reading for the broad overview of the challenges facing the Obama White House in 2011. LINK HERE for the article.

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