Mideast Peace Talks Collapse: Is War Around the Corner?
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A-O Special Coverage
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Editor's Note:
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The following is a special round-up of media coverage on the future of President Obama's peace talk initiatives that appears to have collapsed. The reason for the collapse is Palestinian insistence that Israel continue to halt its West Bank and East Jerusalem settlement construction. Israeli PM Netanyahu issued a moratorium freeze on construction in those areas ten months ago. That moratorium expired, Sunday evening at sundown, September 26 at sundown, Israeli time.
Our coverage includes an overview of the situation plus a look at it from the Israeli perspective and the Palestinian response.
Why do we perceive this as important? With thecollapse of the peace talks, many experts in the region believe the likelihood for war will greatly increase to the point of near certainty, sooner or later, and most likely, sooner.
Most assuredly, a new round of terror appears to be emerging as Jerusalem witnessed a new type of terror - drive-by shootings at the hands of unknown terrorists.
Palestinians also took to the streets of East Jerusalem throwing rocks and fire-bombs. The area around the Western Wall (Wailing Wall) was the scene of fire-bombings by young Palestinians as they rampaged through the streets around the Temple Mount. Israeli police battled the civilian mobs managing to restore a semblance of order, but all of Israel remains tense with the expectation that greater terror attacks are yet to come.
Hamas has already indicated it would step up terror attacks inside of Israel as part of an effort to halt the peace process.
Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas called for an ermergency meeting of the Arab League's special peace talks committee and has begun polling junior leaders of his "Fatah" military force seeking council on what should be the PA's next steps. Meanwhile, Fatah has been holding "unity" discussions with Hamas. The move towards unification of the two groups could pose a still greater threat to Israel's security if the PA abandons its moderate approach with Israel and joins with the Hamas' strategy of waging war on Israel.
The coming days now appear to be fraught with even more danger for the entire Middle East than at any time since January of 2009 when Israel waged war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. We will continue to closely monitor the situation during the week and post updates as the situation warrants. Despite these developments, for the moment we will refrain from raising our alert color level to "red alert." For a Red Alert level we need to see the outbreak of an actual war.
Both Sides Resist Compromise
All week long, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu resisted pressure from the Obama Administration to compromise on the Israeli settlement construction. That pressure came to an end over the weekend as new developments within the Palestinian Authority made such pressure both impracticable and impossible from a moral standpoint. The collapse of the peace talks centered around the thorny issue of Israel's new construction program for Jewish settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The Palestinians vehemently object to such construction in what they believe is part of their land that would constitute a new nation called Palestine.
Ten months ago PM Netanyahu had issued a temporary construction freeze for Israeli settlements on the West Bank and Jerusalem that was scheduled to end on September 26, 2010. The expiration of that freeze order has become "the" obstacle for progress in the two rounds of renewed Peace Talks held in the past month.
The inability of both sides to reach some sort of compromise on the freeze order has transformed the negotiating process into something of a diplomatic crisis. Numerous geo-political experts fear that a collapse of the peace talks will lead to at least an outbreak of terror and civil unrest and eventually the outbreak of war between Israel and her neighbors.
Over the weekend, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the U.S. State Department diplomats worked feverishly to dissuade the Palestinian delegation from quitting the talks. However, such efforts came to a startling halt on Saturday when the U.S. and Israel learned that Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas had authorized a PA delegation to meet in Damascus, Syria with the top leadership of Hamas. Hezbollah and Syrian officials.
The news that the PA had engaged in dialogue with the terrorist groups not only enraged Israeli Defense officials but it also called into question the PA's future intentions for peace or war. Netanyahu's first goal in the peace talk strategy was for the PA to focus first on establishing Israel's right to security without fear of violence from terrorism or war. The PA insisted that the first order of business was the establishment of borders, once Israel permanently halted its settlement construction program as a pre-condition for any further advancement of the talks.
Intelligence reports from the region indicate that Hamas was working with outside terror groups to engage in a major terrorist campaign against Israel that would permanently derail the peace process. The discovery that a PA delegation was meeting with Hamas in Damascus has at least temporarily halted any further pressures by the U.S. towards Israel to engage in any sort of compromise.
There are reports from the Middle East that PA Chairman Abbas has now hardened his position, refusing to negotiate any further and instead has turned to Hamas for consultation. Concern is rising that Hamas and the PA's military wing "Fatah" will form some sort of unity movement and engage in a new round of either terror or military operations against Israel.
Some analysts in the region now suspect that PA Chairman Abbas has been playing a "double" game all along in a joint venture with Hamas. Whether this is true or not remains to be seen. What is becoming apparent, however, is the real possibility for an outbreak of major terror strikes inside Israel and against Jewish targets around the world.
It is reported that a 3 man PA delegation was appointed by the PA chief to travel to Damascus for talks. Those reportedly selected for the trip included: Azzam al Ahmad, Gen. Nasser Yusuf and Sahar Basiso, head of Fatah General Intelligence, sat down with Hamas' leader Khaled Meshaal, head of its politburo Mussa Abu Marzouk and Izzat Rishak, intelligence chief. Rishak is the reported mastermind for a new terror campaign that began at the end of August just as the first peace talk meetigns were taking place. 4 Israelis were murdered and 2 more were injured in two separate terror attacks in Israel.
The Obama Administration's last hope for continuing the peace process is to some how draw into the peace process both Syria and Hamas. This is something that the State Department has been working on for the past two weeks with new overtures being tendered to Damascus, including a Netanyahu proposal to withdraw Israeli forces from most of the Golan Heights in exchange for peace with Syria.
These latest developments came on the heels of President Obama's address to the UN on Thursday in which he noted that the center piece of his Middle East policies revolved around the success of his mediation efforts for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. It now appears that his efforts to obtain a peace arrangement are on the verge of collapse much like those of his predecessors of the past 62 years.
In a last-ditch effort to keep the peace process alive, Secretary of State Clinton will meet on Monday, (9/27) with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem to see whether Syria will respond positively to the idea of joining in the peace talks as part of the overall process. Clinton will then relay an invitation to Hamas to also become involved in the peace talks. Without such an aggreement, it appears the Obama peace process has died in its infancy. President Obama had optimistically hoped that in less than a year, both sides would reach an historic agreement that would spare the world of another regional war. Now the prospects for war loom ever larger.
In late developments, PA Chairman Abbas said the even if Israel does not extend the construction freeze, the PA will not immediately abandon the peace process and will not engage in acts of violence or terrorism. Abbas did indicate that he has called for an Arab League committee meeting to be held in Cairo within the next few days to further discuss the PA's next moves. The PA chieftain is leaving doors open for a continuation of the talks as well as the possibility of moving away from the peace process.
For more details on the peace negotiations and Mideast diplomacy - Reuters News coverage: LINK HERE. - Israeli News LINK HERE
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Settlement Construction Freeze
To Extend the Freeze or End It
Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu is under intense pressure to retain a moratorium on new settlement construction for Jews in the West Bank and East Jerusalem areas.
10 months ago, the Israeli leader issued a halt to new construction projects in those regions. The construction halt would end after September 26 unless there was significant progress in peace negotiations towards Israel's future security. As the deadline arrives, Netanyahu is under fierce pressure from his political supporters to lift the construction ban and allow construction to resume. The Israeli PM also finds himself under intense diplomatic pressure from Washington, Europe and the Palestinian leadership to maintain the freeze or declare a permanent end to settlement construction in the region. The PA has made it a mandatory pre-condition before peace talks can proceed.
Should Netanyahu can in to international pressure and extend the freeze on construction, he faces the potential loss of political support to keep him in power. He could face a revolt from within his own political party, The Likud as well as from the coalition of other political parties. If he allows the freeze to expire, he could lose the support of his other political partner, Defense Minister Ehud Barak who leads the liberal, Labor Party. Barak is leaning towards the idea of some sort of compromise that would enable the peace talks to continue. Thus, Netanyahu finds himself between a rock and a hard spot in a no-win situation for Netanyahu.
For the latest on the Israeli political situation on this issue, LINK HERE.
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Israeli Report:
Netanyahu Won't Give Up
Temple Mount "Wailing Wall"
The Jerusalem Post is reporting that aides to Prime Minister Netanyahu have told the Post that the Prime Minister will never give up the "Western Wall" or "Wailing Wall" to the Arabs. There are reports that former Prime Minsiter Olmert had offered to give back control of the Wailing Wall to the Palestinians during private peace talks with Olmert. Netanyahu's aides told the Jerusalem Post that Prime Minister Netanyahu is under no obligation to honor any of the former Prime Minister's proposals.
The Prime Minister's aides insist that Bibi Netanyahu has no intention of allowing any part of Jerusalem to be turned over to Arab control, especially the holy basin of East Jerusalem. The Jerusalem Post quotes one associate of the Prime Minister stating:
“There is no situation in which Netanyahu or any Likud leader could offer the Palestinians what Olmert offered, especially regarding Jerusalem,” said Likud faction chairman Ze’ev Elkin, who is close to Netanyahu. “I don’t think any Likud MK would vote for it, and the public would be overwhelmingly against it as well.”
the Post also noted that a Likud member of the Knesset, Danny Danon noted that the the problem was not with Netanyahu but rather with the President of the United States, Barack Obama. Danon was quoted by the Post as saying:
“I don’t believe Netanyahu would have considered Olmert’s conditions but there is no doubt that Obama sees them as obligatory,” Danon said. “They don’t understand that we had an election that changed the reality in Israel.”
For more on this story, LINK HERE.
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Against PM Netanyahu
Over Construction Promises
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The head of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas remains steadfast in requiring Israel to retain its West Bank and Jerusalem construction moratorium. He also says he remains committed to peace and has renounced the use of civilian unreast such as the "Intifada" approach, noting that Palestinians have tried that before and that it didn't work. For more on the Palestinian leader's comments about the peace process situation and the PA's rseponse, LINK HERE.
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Efforts by President Obama's Middle East envoy, George Mitchel to bring Syria to the peace table with Israel are getting nowhere fast. Mitchell is not alone. A French effort is also reportedly falling on deaf ears. More details on the Syrian equation in the peace process, LINK HERE.
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Could Spell Fresh Threats for Israel
The two rival factions that comprise most of the Palestinian people are Hamas and the military wing of the Palestinian Authority known as "Fatah."
Leaders of both groups met in Damascus, Syria over the weekend to discuss unification of the two sides in an effort to unite the Palestinian people in order to regain Palestinian territory it lost when Israel became a nation in 1948.
The leaders of both groups agreed to reconciliation talks that would end their divisions and lead to power-sharing. After a 4 hour meeting, a joint statement was issued noting that the two sides reached an understanding on the "majority of points of difference." both sides agreed to another meeting during the first week of October and expect to sign a reconciliation agreement in Cairo, Egypt. Such a move would then set the stage for a new round of elections. For more details, LINK HERE.
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