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Middle East War Talk

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For August 22, 2010

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Editor's Note: For other Mideast News, see our regular Middle East News Spotlighjt page. This page pertains to news coverage related to prospects of war int the Middle East.

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Russian technicians have begun loading plutonium fuel rods into Iran's new nuclear power plant at Bushehr along Iran's western coast. The insertion of fuel rods began on Saturday after a one week notice was publicized by Moscow announcing the start up process would begin on Saturday, August 21.

The Russian announcement instantly fueled much media punditry and speculation that perhaps Israel would launch military air strikes against the facility before the start up process would begin. Among those speculations, former US Ambassador to the UN, John Bolton noted that once Bushehr was activated it would no longer be a potential target because of concerns that its destruction could lead to a Chernobyl-like release of radiation that could pollute water in the Persian Gulf as well as the atmosphere which could affect neighboring countries.

Nuclear experts note that used-up fuel rods from the plant's production of electricity could be used to make more powerful "plutonium" nuclear bombs far more powerful than the atom-bombs dropped on Japan to end WW2. The Russian government has provided assurances that it will retain custody of spent nuclear fuel rods and would keep Iran from being able to use the spent rods for military purposes. Despite such assurances, there is much skepticism that Russia could keep its promise if Iran arbitrarily intervened and kicked the Russians out of the nation at a later date.

The fuelling prociess will be completed by September 5 and will then begin final start up that will culminate in the production of electricity.For more details on this developing story direct from Iran's official news outlet, LINK HERE.  Additional Details - LINK HERE.

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As Iran launched its new Bushehr nuclear power plant on Saturday, Israel's Foreign Ministery issued a statement calling the development "totally unacceptable." The statement called for more international pressure to halt Iran's uranium enrichment program.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yossi Levy said: "It is totally unacceptable that a country that so blatantly violates resolutions of the (United Nations) Security Council, decisions of the International Atomic Energy Agency and its commitments under the NPT (non-proliferation treaty) should enjoy the fruits of using nuclear energy."  The spokesman went on to add: "The international community should increase pressure on to force Iran to abide by international decisions and cease its enrichment activities and its construction of reactors."

In Washington, a spokesman for the U.S. State Department commented on the new development by saying that the start up of the Bushehr nuclear power plant reactor "underscores that Iran does not need an indigenous enrichment capability if its intentions are purely peaceful." The spokesman also acknowledged that: "we recognize that the Bushehr reactor is designed to provide civilian nuclear power and do not view it as a proliferation risk."

For more reaction to the launch of the Bushehr reactor, LINK HERE.

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A fortnite before Iran's nuclear power plant at Bushehr begins the installation of fuel rods prior to the start up for generating electricity, The New York Times reported that the Obama Administration has "persuaded" the Israeli government that Iran is not yet an imminent nuclear threat to Israel's national security.

According to the NY Times report, U.S. intelligence believes that Iran is at least a year or more away from developing its own nuclear weapon. Obama Administration officials believe the new U.S. assessment has dampened Israeli desires to launch pre-emptive strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities within the next 12 months.

The Times report also indicates a U.S. intelligence assessment that before Iran could make a bomb, UN inspectors would be able to detect such final efforts to provide sufficient advance warning to prepare and then strike Iran as needed. U.S intelligence cites reports that Iran has been having difficulty enriching uranium due to poor quality centrifuges and their inablity to obtain needed parts to fix problems encountered during the enrichment process, thus slowing down the enhanced enrichedment program by many months.

U.S. intelligence also believes that prior to making the bomb, UN inspectors would be kicked out of Iran so that Iran could then take the newly enriched uranium andinstall it inside a bomb. U.S. intelligence also cites other factors which the NY Times report also covers that leads US experts to conclude that Iran is at least more than one year away from building its first nuclear bomb. It is all of the various indicators that have allegedly caused Israel to back away from pre-emptive strikes in 2010. You can read the full NY Times article - LINK HERE.

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Israel's Finance Minister, Yuval Steinitz has announced: "The time has come for the whole world, under U.S. leadership, to present Iran with unequivocal ultimatum." Steinitz, a member of Prime Minister Netanyahu'd cabinet went on to add: The U.S. must issue a clear ultimatum to Iran, tell it that if it does not change its behavior within weeks, the military option that has been on the table will now become relevant."

Steinitz is also chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. His words do carry significant weight as reflecting the view of the Netanyahu ruling coalition yet his words enable the Prime Minister to have some wiggle room with Washington. Even so, its a clear message to the White House. Steinitz adds:

"It’s time for the whole world, under US leadership, to issue Iran a clear ultimatum that if it does not change its ways in a clear and verifiable manner, it can expect an American attack, or at least a naval blockade."

The Finance Minister also challenged statements made recently by former President Bush's UN Ambassador, John Bolton, who had stated that Israel must attack Iran's nuclear power plant at Bushehr before Saturday, August 21st or else forget about stopping Iran's march for a nuclear weapon. Steinitz disputed Bolton's analysis by stating that

"Bushehr is only one reactor, and not necessarily the most significant one in respect to the nuclear issue. However, Iran's progress in enriching (uranium) and its aspirations for nuclear weapons continue and must be stopped."

His remarks indicate an Israeli governmental view - that Bushehr is not a major Israeli military concern and that Bushehr has not been considered a military target for Israel, probably for quite some time due to its sponsorship by Russia.

For a full report on the Finance Minister's comments, direct from Israel's Haaretz newspaper service, see the LINK HERE.

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Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned the entire world over the weekend that if his nation is attacked, Iran will respond globally, anywhere in the world, with a counter-attack. The Iranian leader also noted that international law makes it an international crime for any nation to launch a military attack against an operational, civilian nuclear power plant and now Bushehr quailifies under international law as it becomes operational. For more on this story, LINK HERE.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/Ahmadinejad-promises-global-response-if-Iran-is-attacked-/articleshow/6387924.cms

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Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced on Sunday, (8/22) that Iran has now developed an unmanned, remote-controlled bomber (drone) capable of carrying 4 cruise missiles for a range of 1,000 kilometers. It would be able to reach and strike Israel.

The announcement is just the latest in a string of military equipment revelations with more expected in the coming week. Iran has already unveilved 4 new "mini-submarines" and a surface-to-surface ballistic missile as well as annoucing plans to launch high altitude satellites during the next three years and develop as many as 20 additional nuclear facilities. These announcements also coincide with the inaugural start-up process for Iran's new nuclear electricity power plant at Bushehr.

For more details on the latest weapons announcements, -- .Iranian coverage - LINK HERE.

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Lebanon has rejected an Israeli warning concerning a new Gaza Aid shipment aboard a freighter bound for the Gaza Strip this weekend.

Lebanese government officials refused Israel's demand to halt the sailing of a freighter that will include not only aid to Gaza Palestinians, but also an all female passenger manifest.

Should the boat set sail for Gaza and challenge the current Israeli naval blockade, Israel will be forced to deal with another potentially embarrassing incident involving women, suggesting the ship's entry would pose no violent challenge to Israeli forces. Interception could further bolster world opinion in favor of the Palestinians and further induce negative world opinion against Israel. For more on this story, .

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Iranian television announced at the end of the week that the Iranian military has test-fired a brand new ballistic missile called "The Mahdi" - which is also the name of the Islamic "messiah" yet to return and impose Islamic rule world-wide.

Iran's Defense Minister made the announcement and noted that missile is a "new class" of missile. He commented on the missile stating: “The missile has new technical aspects and has a unique tactical capacity." He went on to add: “Since the surface-to-surface missile has no wings, it has lot of tactical power, which also reduces the chances of it being intercepted." The dfense chief gave no further information on the new missile, but his remarks suggested that perhaps Iran believes this missile has some sort of stealth capability.

Iran also announced other major military developments during the week. The Iranian navy now has taken possession of 4 new mini-submarines called a "Ghadir-class" submarine. The navy is also starting 2 production lines for the world's fastest military speedboat, which Iran will mass produce and function much like the famous "PT" boats of WW2. Iran wants a massive fleet of such boats equipped with high-powered missiles capable of sinking large ships such as U.S. aircraft carriers. The idea is to overwhelm a US Carrier with swarms of these speedboats so that the carrier simply can't defend itself against so many targets at double the speed of most surface craft.

The Iranians are also espected to continue missile tests on a new more accurate, short-range ballistic missile with about a 100 mile range.

All of these announcements came as a prelude to Iran's inaugural start-up of its first nuclear power plant at Bushehr. The new plant will generate electricity for civilian use only and was built by Russia. Russia will supervise the nuclear fuel and will control the fuel rods to pervent Iran from using the waste by-products to build advanced plotonium nuclear bombs.

For more on Iran's latest military weapons revelations, LINK HERE.

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According to Al Qaeda leaders in Yemen, the terror group is prepared to assist in a war against Israel should fighting break out between Israel and Iran or Iran's proxy forces in Lebanon, Gaza or Syria.

In an audio message, Al Qaeda's second-in-command in Yemen has predicted that after Israel has attacked Iran's nuclear facilities Iran would blame Saudi Arabia and use the opportunity to seize the holy Islamic cities of Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia.

The number two commander in Yemen, Saheed Al-Shehri also warned that Israel would also attempt to invade other Arab states in the Middle East to proclaim a "greater state of Israel" and thus trapping the Sunni Muslims between Israel and Iran. For more on this story, LINK HERE to the Jerusalem Post coverage. Additional info LINK HERE.

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A military scandal, quietly simmering for much of this year finally broke out into the Israeli public venue in the past 10 days. The scandal produced a brewing crisis in confidence as potential military leaders jockeyed in lobbying efforts with the Defense Minister and Prime Minister to appoint a new Chief General.

The scandal couldn't come at a worse time, as Israel faces an impending war with its neighbors and Iran. Consequently, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak have moved quickly to appoint IDF General Galant to the top commander position. Galant is scheduled to take the post from vacating General Ashkenazi next February but there is great speculation that Galant will take the post as earlier as mid-September due to threatening military developments from Israel's neighbors.

In the past week, Hezbollah forces, plus Lebanese and Syrian Armies have made overtly hostile movements suggesting an imminent eruption of war. Tensions are also high along Israel's southern border along the Gaza Strip. All of this combined with developments out of Iran persuaded Israel's leadership to settle the leadership scandal quickly and not wait until the end of the year. For more on this story, LINK HERE for Jerusalem Post coverage.

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The new appointment of Major General Yoav Galant as top IDF commander sends a clear message to the world. The State of Israel does not intend to remain idle and wait to be attacked by rockets, missiles, and possibly unconventional weapons.

The new commander believes that the best defense is a good offense and pre-emptive strikes often are the best solution to a military/political problem. For more on this analysis, read an op-ed article from Israel's Ynet News - LINK HERE.

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