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Iran Nuclear Mystery


Nuke Fuel Moved

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The New York Times is reporting that UN nuclear inspectors discovered two weeks ago that Iran has moved its entire stockpile of low-enriched uranium to an above ground plant after having moved it to a secret underground base inside a military installation near the city of Qom last September, ostensibly to avoid air strikes.

Iran has given no explanation for the sudden move. Some experts hypthesize that Iran is taunting Israel to launch air strikes as if a bulls-eye had been painted over the new storage site. Other experts theorize that the move is yet another effort to win further diplomatic concessions from the West. The NY Times suggests though that possibly the simplest explanation is that Iran has run out of suitable storage containers for the radioactive fuel so it had to move everything, which we find slightly implausiable. One thing for sure is that the move has caused a great deal of confusion and puzzlement within Western intelligence agencies.

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The New York Times goes on to add:

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    On the surface, the move made no sense. Iran does not need anywhere near that much fuel for its ostensible purpose: feeding an aging reactor in Tehran that makes medical isotopes. Moreover, the fuel now sits out in the open, where an air attack, or even a carefully staged accident or fire, could destroy it.   

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American and European officials will say little on the record because the guessing game touches on three of the most sensitive subjects in the dispute: Whether Israel will strike the facilities and risk igniting a broader Middle East war; whether there is still time to stop the Iranian program through sanctions and diplomacy; and who is really in control of Iran and its nuclear program.   

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“There’s no technical explanation, so there has to be some other motivation,” one senior administration official who studies the Iranian strategy said after a White House briefing last week following the atomic agency’s revelation.

   

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The strangest of the speculations — but the one that is being talked about most — is that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is inviting an attack to unify the country after eight months of street demonstrations that have pitted millions of Iranians against their government. As one senior European diplomat noted Thursday, an Israeli military strike might be the “best thing” for Iran’s leadership because it would bring Iranians together against a national enemy.

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The Times' article then continues to describe the consternation in the White House and among various Intelligence and Foreign Policy Think-Tanks with further eye-opening comments. Read the full article - LINK HERE.

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We'll have further analysis of this development in the 2-28-10 issue of the A-O Intelligence Digest, which includes reports on "War Council meetings" between Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas.

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