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The A-O Report:

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Mideast War Watch

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For 2-10-10

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Today was a very "quiet" day for war rhetoric. Is this the "calm" before the storm? Perhaps, but then again, as we'd previously noted as we started our "War Watch" yellow alert - it seemed to us that neither side was militarily prepared to start the shooting. Therefore, we concluded that the most likely scenario to start a shooting war would be a minor incident that escalated.

Our chief concern though was Iran's rhetoric concerning February 11th. Both President Ahmadinejad and Supreme Ayatollah Khameini made rather bizarre, threatening remarks. The President's remarks initially came at the start of the month and the 11 days of Iranian Revolution celebrations and then again last week. We held back from moving to a yellow alert and war watch status as we all know their President is famous for such remarks. However, when the weekend rolled around and the Supreme Leader indicated that the "obliteration of Israel" was perhaps at hand, we took that comment seriously. Then within hours, the Ayatollah announces in front of the Iranian Air Force command that a "punch" was coming on February 11th that would stun the West, well that really caught our attention.

Ayatollah Khameini is not known for making idle statements such as he made over the weekend. Given the extreme tension along the Israeli northern border, we determined that it would be a good precaution to move to yellow alert coverage for this week. On Monday there was a lot to report with less on Tuesday. Today, Wednesday, it has been relatively quiet on the Middle Eastern news front. Not much is stirring. What we do have, we've posted below.

We'll wait and see what develops on Thursday. Will we see a "punch" against the West and if so, what kind of punch?  I suspect that if anything comes of that threat it will be something "non-military." My best guess is keyed to a remark made recently by former US ambassador to the UN, John Bolton. Ambassador Bolton suggested that Iran's next move would likely be to withdraw its membership from the UN's Non-Proliferation Treaty. (NPT). This seems like a very logical possibility, however, I think the only ones who might be stunned would be the world's diplomats and UN officials. It's also possible that there will be an announcement that Russia is moving to deliver its vaunted S-300 air defense system to Iran. That is a deal that has been in the making for nearly 5 years. While that is a possibility, I suspect it is remote.

It's entirely possible that Iran will signal Hezbollah to start some sort of military action, but again, this seems to be a remote possibility. I think Iran feels it doesn't yet have all of its military ducks in a row for war, just yet. I think Iran wants another few weeks to get all of its chess pieces in place for the great conflict with Israel.

We'll be carefully monitoring news events all day Thursday and updating as needed, but unless something major develops, our Yellow Alert coverage will probably end on Friday and we'll resume normal news coverage.

And now, for today's news developments.

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Israeli Op-Ed on Israeli Decision on Iran

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Israel Bombs S. Gaza

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Israeli warplanes have struck targets in the souther tip of the Gaza Strip on Wednesday. The attack was in response to Palestinian rocket fire during the last few days against Israeli towns in the Negev region.

Reports indicate that the Israeli bombs hit an unused airport, near Rafah. More details, LINK HERE.

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Analysis of Iran's behavior from The London Telegraph newspaper. LINK HERE.

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Iranian police say they have arrested a number of opposition supporters planning demonstrations during the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. More details LINK HERE.

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Iranian authorities are taking pre-emptive action to break up public street protests scheduled for Thursday, February 11th, the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Iran.

Iranian forces are conducting security sweeps, making arrests and warning the public to refrain from joining antigivernment protests for tomorrow. Antigovernment protesters are plotting to hold antigovernment protests during officially-sanctioned parades and anniversary celebrations.

Government officials have been conducting pre-emptive actions for several days, including the shut-down of cell phone and internet services, which protesters have used in the past to plan demonstrations. For more on this story, LINK HERE.

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Iran's move to a higher level of uranium enrichment has run into some serious technical setbacks with its centrifuge equipment. More details, LINK HERE.

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