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Taliban & Al Qaeda May Win

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Afghanistan War

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Perhaps This Year!

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Editor's Note: Our A-O Intelligence Digest recently warned that the Islamic radicals under the direction of The Taliban and Al Qaeda were gearing up for a 2009 offensive that could sweep their forces to victory in Afghanistan and also in Pakistan by the end of next year. Now, we're beginning to get some news media coverage indicating this could be a distinct possibility, especially in Afghanistan and perhaps as early as this year.

In fact, the Al Qaeda and Taliban forces are already making preliminary moves for a campaign in which, Allied commanders fear could sweep the Islamic radicals back into power in Afghanistan, if not this year then perhaps next year unless reinforcments are quickly brought in to stem the tide.

Of course, if you're an A-O Donor and read The A-O Insider Report and the A-O Intelligence News Digest, then such news articles as we're now presenting below would not be anything new to you. If you're wanting to really stay informed as to what's really going on, behind the scenes, you can do so by gaining access to the news and analysis reports at The A-O Insider Report - by simply becoming a regular donor to this website. For more details on how easy it is for you to become an A-O Donor, see this LINK HERE. 

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Afghan War

"Could be Lost By Summer"

The war against the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan will be lost by the end of the summer without dramatic changes in counter-insurgency strategy, according to a leading US military expert.

The assessment of Col John Nagl, who is consulting the US government as it conducts four separate policy reviews on Afghanistan, comes amid fears that unless the insurgents' advance is halted, Afghanistan will become the new president's Vietnam.

Adm Mullen has said he expected to announce the deployment of a further 30,000 US troops soon, even though the Obama administration is waiting to evaluate the reviews.

"The commander on the ground has asked for additional forces and meeting those requirements against the overall strategy is something that I have an expectation to get directed to do," he said.

The anticipation in military circles is that the president will agree not only to the extra troops but to the adoption of the approach that worked well in Iraq, whereby US forces concentrate less seeking out and killing insurgents. Instead they followed a "clear, hold, build" strategy designed to consolidate gains and prevent captured towns falling back into enemy hands.

Col Nagl, an Iraq veteran who helped devise the successful strategy there under the aegis of Gen David Petraeus, told The Daily Telegraph that the gains made by the Taliban over the past two years need to be reversed by the end of the traditional fighting season in Afghanistan, around late September or early October, or else the Taliban will establish a durable base that would make a sustained Western military presence futile.

"Counter-insurgency campaigns have momentum. Like a football game when the crowd senses something before it happens. Right now the Taliban has that momentum," said Col Nagl, who co-authored the recently published US Government Counterinsurgency Guide.

For more details, LINK HERE.

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US Intel Chief Warns

Taliban Gaining in Afghanistan

The new director of national intelligence warned Thursday that Afghanistan's weak and corrupt government is failing to halt the spread of Taliban control and said that public support for the Taliban and local warlords was increasing.

The assessment underscored in stark terms the obstacles facing the Obama administration as it vows to focus more American troops and attention on the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. The intelligence chief, Dennis Blair, described the American-backed government of Hamid Karzai as increasingly ineffective and unpopular. More details, LINK HERE.

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NATO In Deeper in Afghan War

Than Russia Ever Was

Two decades after the Soviet withdrawal, ever more resources are being poured into a war with scant chance of success.  More details, LINK HERE.

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Taliban Terrorists Afghan Capital

Afghanistan War in Trouble

Taliban suicide bombers and gunmen struck three government sites in the Afghan capital Kabul Wednesday. At least 20 people were killed. The attack came on the eve of a visit to Kabul by U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke. He's in the region to help establish the Obama administration's new policy in Afghanistan. Richard Oppel Jr., a reporter with The New York Times, tells Renee Montagne Afghan officials have locked down the city. LINK HERE.

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US Envoy Arrives in Afghanistan

President Barack Obama's new envoy to Afghanistan met with President Hamid Karzai on Saturday amid a downturn in U.S.-Afghan relations and an upswing in militant violence.

Karzai says he still has not spoken with Obama almost a month after his inauguration, a sign the Afghan president no longer enjoys the favored status he had under former President George W. Bush.

"There is tension between us and the U.S. government on issues of civilian casualties, arrests of Afghans, nightly raids on homes and the casualties they cause," Karzai told al-Jazeera television in an interview Friday.

Obama has said the U.S. will increase its attention on Afghanistan under his tenure as the U.S. transitions out of Iraq. But the administration is still debating how to stem the Taliban tide and tackle the endemic corruption in Karzai's government more than seven years after the 2001 invasion.

Taliban militants have increased attacks and swept up wide areas of countryside over the last three years. The U.S. is contemplating sending up to 30,000 more American forces to back up the 33,000 already in Afghanistan.

Richard Holbrooke, Obama's new envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, met with Karzai at the heavily guarded presidential palace in central Kabul on Saturday. Neither Holbrooke nor Karzai made any public statements, but the two scheduled a joint news conference for Sunday.  More details, LINK HERE.

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US General Says:

Iran Helping Taliban in Afghanistan

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America's top military commander in the Middle East, General David Petraeus told the news media this week that Iran is helping the Taliban in its battle with US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. More details, LINK HERE.

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