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Israeli Election Results

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Kadima Shocks Likud

Above: Tzipi Livni: Kadima Party Leader. Will she be the next PM?

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Above: Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu - Likud Leader

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Political Turmoil Continues In Israel

Israel’s now concluded general election was supposed to end that nation’s political turmoil with a general election that would hopefully provide a mandate and clear direction for the nation’s security. The February 10, 2009 election has failed to do just that. Instead, the nation now faces continued political turmoil with yet another unstable government.

The Kadima Party, now headed by the current Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni has managed to score at least a moral victory by edging out the Likud Party led by Benjamin Netanyahu. With 99% of the vote counted, the Kadima party has scored 28 Knesset seats in Israel’s Parliament. The conservative Likud Party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu has apparently picked up only 27 Knesset seats. The Israeli Parliament, known in Israel as the Knesset is a 120 seat legislative chamber. The Prime Minister of Israel must have a majority of those 120 members or at least 61 members supporting his/her government.

Israel has found itself stuck with the need for coalition governments because it has always been bedeviled by a plethora of political parties. Never in Israel’s history has one party gained an outright majority in its own right. As a result, Israeli governments have been formed by fractious coalitions which results in unstable administrations.

This year, 33 parties vied for votes but only a relative handful of those parties gained seats in the Knesset. Those grabbing seats, generally speaking were the older, more established parties, but a couple of up and coming new parties managed to score impressive gains.

With 99% of the vote counted, here’s a look at how the parties faired in grabbing Knesset seats.

Kadima                          28  seats
Likud                              27  seats
Yisrael Beiteinu             15  seats
Labor                             13  seats
Shas                              11  seats
United Torah Judaism    5  seats
National Union               4  seats
Hadash                          4  seats
United Arab                   4  seats
Balad                             3  seats
Meretz                           3  seats
Jewish Home                3  seats

The question now gravitates as to whether or not Kadima’s leadership under Tzipi Livni can form a new government or whether Likud’s Benjamin Netanyahu can form the new government. Under Israeli law, Israel’s President Shimon Peres must choose which party will be allowed to try and form a new government. The length of time allowed for forming a coalition government is 45 days. If the President’s choice is unable to achieve a coalition, the President can opt to the next party or choose to call for new elections. Historically, the presidential choice is reserved to the party which has garnered the most Knesset members, however this race became a virtual tie. As such, it remains to be seen how Peres will decide.

Israeli President Shimon Peres is a hard-care, full-blown New World Order Illuminist who has been a past Prime Minister of Israel under the Labor Party banner. He did his best to give away as much of Israel’s territory as he could. There can be little doubt that his personal ideological preference would be for The Kadima Party, but Peres may have some hidden personal bias against Tzipi Livni, the Kadima Leader. Peres has a personal grudge against Benjamin Netanyahu after the Likud leader scored a surprise election victory against Peres in 1996, which ousted Peres from his Prime Minister’s position.

 

Coalition Options

Right Wing Options

The more likely coalition to form a government would be one led by The Likud Party and Netanyahu. Even before the election, the Shas Party, an ultra-orthodox religious party had informed Kadima’s Tzipi Livni that the Shas party would be joining with a Likud coalition and would no longer consider backing Kadima due to Kadima’s plans to negotiate away Jerusalem, the Temple Mount, and the West Bank. The Shas Party scored 11 seats.

Another ultra-conservative party is a nearly, brand new “Yisrael Beiteinu” Party led by Russian-born Avigdor Lieberman. This party has apparently garnered 15 seats, a gain of 4 seats from the prior election.

These are the 3 larger parties with a right-wing bias. Together they tally up to a total of 53 seats or 8 shy of the necessary 61 needed to try and form a government. However there are small parties of the same conservative bend – including the National Union Party with 4 seats and the Jewish Home Party with 3 seats and the United Torah Judaism Party with 5 seats. With the addition of these smaller groups, Netanyahu would have a total of 65 member seats supporting his candidacy for Prime Minister.

The problem with such thinking is that now is the time for wheeling and dealing. The Kadima party, which is a self-proclaimed “centrist” party will try to form its own coalition with these smaller parties, by perhaps offering them greater roles in a Kadima-led coalition government.

The Left-Center Options

Israel no longer seems to have much of a left-wing political movement any more. Much of the liberal and left-wing has been disillusioned by liberal ideals for negotiated peacemaking that instead has only created greater national security risks, more bloodshed and more heartache. Consequently, the once mighty, Labor Party has become a shell of its former self. It was the Labor Party that was very much left-wing and very liberal in orientation.

In the early years of Israel’s existence, The Labor Party was the only real political party in Israel, although it went under different names until 1968 when the term “Labor” began to be applied to its organization.

At one time, Labor garnered as many as 56 seats and usually in the 40s. However in recent years its clout and appeal has diminished. In the last elections, Labor garnered 19 seats – an historic low for the party. However, the 2009 election results indicate that Labor’s popularity has  hit a new all-time record low of only 13 Knesset seats. These new results mean that Labor is now the 4th largest political party, behind Kadima, Likud, and Yisrael Beiteinu. In reality, Labor’s 4th position status could be 5th as the Shas Party is close behind Labor with 11 Knesset seats.

Here is how the Center-Left Coalition Parties fared in the 2009 election.

Kadima       28 seats
Labor          13 seats
Meretz          3 seats
Hadash        4 seats
Ra’am Tal    4 seats
Balad           3 seats
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Total Bloc  55 seats

Kadima’s leader, Tzipi Livni will have to romance one or more of the conservative bloc’s political parties if there is to be a Kadima-led coalition government. Such a move is considered unlikely, in large measure, because Livni tried last fall to create a coalition when she took over control of the party from Prime Minister Olmert who resigned his post amid criminal corruption investigations.

With Livni unable to persuade any of the right-wing parties to join her coalition, it would seem unlikely that any party would now have an interest, but that was then and this is now. Livni might make some offers that one or more political parties might find they can’t refuse.

President Peres and Wheeler-Dealing

The fact that Shimon Peres lost a bitter election fight to Benjamin Netanyahu back in 1996 may well come into play in 2009 allowing Peres the opportunity to deny the Prime Ministership to Netanyahu by allowing Livni the opportunity to form a new government. If Livni fails, its possible that Peres might simply order new elections. The fact that Livni’s party gained 1 more seat than Likud could mean that Peres would snub Netanyahu to the bitter end. Of course, new elections could mean a radical change in results. Why?

Likud/Netanyahu Lost Votes

In the preceding 2 months before the election, it appeared that Likud and Benjamin Netanyahu were on a path to victory. Likud led in the polls most of the time, but particularly from mid-January forward when it became obvious to Israeli voters that Kadima and Labor had lost a second war in tow and a half years.

From what Israeli political experts and TV pundits are indicating in post-election coverage – Netanyahu and Likud lost votes because it seemed a win was inevitable. Many who sympathized with Netanyahu however chose to vote for smaller conservative parties on particular narrow grounds in hopes that lesser parties would ensure Netanyahu’s coalition would be strong and give Netanyahu a chance to placate other far-right issues beyond merely national security.

Unfortunately for Likud and Netanyahu, too many felt that way and instead of Likud garnering 35 or 40 seats and being the number one party, the final tally appears to be 27 seats and coming into second place behind Kadima. Should a second election be required, more than likely the right-wing bloc would coalesce around Likud to ensure it achieved a first ranking and the ability to form a government.

One Glimmer of Hope for Netanyahu

There is one further aspect to this election that we’ve not yet mentioned. As noted, the results we posted are not 100%. There are also Israeli Military votes that have yet to be counted. These voting results will not be known until late Thursday or perhaps Friday.

Historically, Israeli military votes are decidedly more right-of-center, nationalistic and security conscious. The military vote counts for 5 mandates or roughly can effect enough votes to perhaps create a tie between Kadima and Likud – or perhaps even give Likud a one or two seat lead over Kadima. However, it may be that the military vote parallels the civilian vote and nothing significant changes in the election outcomes.

As the vote tallies were being posted, Kadima’s Party leader, Tzipi Livni spoke to her supporters and issued a challenge to Likud’s Netanyahu to join her in forming a coalition government in which she would be Prime Minister. LINK HERE.

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For more on Israel’s election results see the following Links:

Both Parties Claim Victory – LINK

Netanyahu Says He’ll Be Next PM – LINK

Election Score Card – Party Results by Ideology – LINK

Voting Irregularities – Tampering? – LINK

Olmert May Remain PM til March – LINK

Solider’s Votes May Yet Swing Election – LINK

Kadima Must Have Yisrael Beiteinu To Form Gov’t – LINK

Yisrael Beiteinu Party Holds Key To Next Gov’t – LINK

Calls for Likud & Kadima To Merge -- LINK

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