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Hurricane Ike Forecasts

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From the National Hurricane Center

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Latest Update: 9-13-8 at 10 am CDT

New NHC Updates Below

Now a CAT-1 at 80 mph

  Damage Assessments To Begin Later Today

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Direct Hit on Houston/Galveston

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US Oil Industry Damgaes?

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FORECAST TRACKING MAP

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Above: NHC's Latest Tracking Map as of 9-13-8 at 10 am CDT.

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The Latest National Advisory

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As of 9-13-8 at 10 am CDT

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131441
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS...
...IKE STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 10 AM CDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM
SARGENT TEXAS WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR NEAR TRINITY
TEXAS.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS...AND ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...IKE COULD REMAIN A
HURRICANE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED
DURING THE PAST HOUR IN LUFKIN TEXAS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
DURING THE PAST HOUR...A PRESSURE VALUE OF 968.5 MB...28.60
INCHES...WAS REPORTED AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER
OF HURRICANE IKE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...
WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS.  THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE.  AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM
SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI...
ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...31.0 N...95.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART-

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NHC's Forecaster Discussion of IKE

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As of 11:00 AM EDT September 13, 2008

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 131500
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IKE IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
FARTHER INLAND TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS. MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 100 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR...SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 968.5 MB WAS REPORTED TO
THE WEST OF THE EYE AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS...SO I WOULD RATHER ERR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND NOT BRING THE WINDS DOWN TOO QUICKLY...
ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14.  IKE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED
EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY 24-36 HOURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IKE MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OR TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE
EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED OF IKE'S SURFACE LOW IS SLOWER IN THE
ADVISORY THAN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DUE TO
ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING
FROM THE LOW-LEVELS AND RACING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 100 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE TIMING OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

ALTHOUGH IKE IS SPINNING DOWN AS A HURRICANE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS...UNFORTUNATELY...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AS WILL CONTINUED
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/1500Z 31.0N  95.3W    70 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 33.2N  95.1W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 36.7N  92.3W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 40.6N  86.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 44.5N  77.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Safir-Simpson Storm Rating Scale

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Hurricane/Storm Scale Windspeeds

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Toprical Depression = Winds organized but 38 mph or under

Tropical Storm = 39 - 73 mph-

Category 1 = Winds 74 - 95 mph

Category 2 = Winds 96 - 110 mph

Category 3 = Winds 111 - 130 mph

Category 4 = Winds 131 - 155 mph

Category 5 = Winds 155+ mph

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