The A-O Intelligence Digest

For

December 2, 2012

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Late-Breaking Developments in Syria

Syria's WMD Threat Re-emerges

The situation in Syria appears to be taking a serious turn against Syrian President Assad's regime.

This past week, Syrian rebels staged a new offensive that has triggered fierce fighting around the capital city of Damascus, including the airport which was shut down for 3 days. Over the weekend rumors were flying around with tweets claiming Assad was either dead or fleeing the nation on a plane headed for Russia. Variations on that included a plane flying Assad's family to safety in Russia. It's not the first time for such rumors and as in the past, the rumors were proven unfounded. Russia denies the rumors.

Other rumors have now become fact. Those include the subject of WMD stockpiles being moved around and readied for use. The New York Times, among other mainstream news media resources reports that intelligence experts are alarmed at evidence showing Syrian forces are indeed moving WMD (Chemical) stockpiles around. This has triggered an intense "watch" effort by various Western intelligence agencies as well as by Israeli intelligence units. Here is the NYT article discussing the WMD developments -- LINK HERE.

Debka.com provides a bit of additional intelligence information in their short alert. See LINK HERE.

It is this renewed concern for Syria's WMDs which prompted Turkey to ask NATO for the new Patriot missile-defense systems to be placed along the Turkish border with Syria. See newspaper article on Turkish concerns of a Syrian WMD attack on Turkey, LINK HERE.

Turkey's leaders are expressing alarm that Syrian President Assad will make good on his public pledge to use all weapons necessary against any foreign nation attempting to interfere in Syria's internal affairs. Turkey's request to NATO was submitted last week to NATO Headquarters and also to the White House. President Obama as well as NATO Command approved the request and Patriot systems are now being rushed to the Turkish-Syrian border for deployment.

Russia's President Flies To Turkey for Talks

Russia's President Putin flew to Turkey over the weekend for talks with Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan. Initially, the talks were intended to discuss Turkish purchases of Russian oil, but late developments involving Syria and the WMD threat  along with Patriot missile defenses being deployed have shifted the emphasis to Russian concerns about Turkey and NATO deploying Patriot missile defenses.

US Gives Iran 90 Days Ultimatum

In Washington, the White House is doing everything it can to begin secret, bilateral nuclear talks with Iran. On Friday, a State Department diplomat assigned to the UN's IAEA for nuclear inspections relayed to Iran a final warning from the White House. The diplomat informed the Iranians that Iran had 90 days to begin total compliance and cooperation for anything the IAEA demanded for inspections. Failure to respond would result in a U.S. led military operation against Iran's nuclear facilities. This put the deadline at March 1, 2013.

Secret Talks Delayed by Iranian Naval Threat

Iran's Nuclear Naval Gambit?

The new, secret talks were scheduled to begin the following day, December 1, 2012 but a last minute hitch postponed the talks until later in the week. The delay was prompted after it was revealed that 2 Iranian warships would be sailing to Port Sudan to rendezvous with a Pakistani warship for joint naval war drills The Pakistani warship, is apparently the frigate Shamsheer as shown on Pakistani naval records. However, Sudan's official news agency along with the Sudan Tribune spelled the ship's name as "Shashmir" This was reported by The Sudan Tribune. See LINK HERE.

The Pakistani warship is a brand new class of Pakistani frigate in the new Zulfiquar class of frigates built jointly by Pakistan and China. The Shamsheer was built in Shanghai, China. Pakistan took possession of the ship in January of 2010. The ship contains certain "stealth" features to avoid radar detection. It carries a 76mm forward deck gun plus 2, 4-cell C-802 cruise-missile launchers. enabling the ship to launch as many as 8 simultaneous surface-to-surface cruise missiles at once. Those missiles are primarily designed to strike/sink other warships and has as reported 98% accuracy rating.  It also features an 8-cell air defense missiles battery. The ship also carries 6 torpedo racks and 12 anti-submarine rocket launchers and a vast array of electronic warfare gear. It also has an enclosed, helicopter flight deck carrying one anti-submarine chopper. The ship is definitely a "state-of-the-art" warship using diesel propulsion capable of speeds of 29 knots.

According to Sudan news reports, the Pakistani warship docked on Thursday (11/29) for a one-day re-fueling and a logistical re-supply as part of the international effort to combat piracy in the Red Sea region.

Sudan reports that 2 Iranian warships were also scheduled to arrive at the same time in Port Sudan as part of the international anti-piracy effort, however at the last minute, Iran notified Sudan that the 2 warships would be delayed in arrival without specifying the reasons.

Western intelligence reports indicate that the Pakistani warship was carrying either nuclear weapons or nuclear-related materials. This set off alarms in Saudi Arabia and Jerusalem, triggering a dire warning to Washington that neither country would tolerate any joint naval drills in the Red Sea between the Pakistani warship and the 2 Iranian warships and both countries would take military action if necessary to prevent any interaction between the warships whether in Port Sudan or out at sea.

Debka.com reports that as a result of this threat, Washington warned Iran that arrival of the 2 Iranian warships at Port Sudan during the stay of the Pakistani warship would result in cancellation of the scheduled nuclear talks slated for Saturday (12/1). Debka.com reports that Iran informed Washington that the two ships would be delayed in their port of call by a week (12/7). However, Iran's response was not quick enough, and the White House notified Tehran that the Saturday meeting would be delayed to later in the first week of December. LINK HERE for the Debka intelligence alert.

Saudis Furious with Obama

The Saudis were furious to learn that the U.S. is conducting secret, direct talks with Tehran concerning Iran's nuclear program. The Saudis are convinced that the Obama Administration is prepared to live with a nuclear-armed Iran. This is something the Saudis are NOT prepared to live with a nuclear-armed Iran, just as Israel is not willing to allow Iran to become nuclear-armed. The Saudis fear that Obama's secret plans for halting Iran's quest for nuclear power are just a smokescreen to keep Saudi Arabia and Israel from preventing a nuclear Iran.

President Obama's New Strategy

for the Mideast

&

For Dealing with the Iranian Nuclear Threat

In response to the concerns of both Israel and Saudi Arabia, the White House has reportedly informed both nations of a White House plan to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat. It involves a 5 point plan to resolve the Iranian nuclear threat. Following the Iranian project are additional plans for creating a peace plan for Israel and her neighbors.

#1. Eliminate Iran's ally, Hamas in a separate, limited military action that destroys the Hamas'  missile threat against Israel. This relieves the threat on Israel's southern flank. The 8-day mini-war resolved this problem as Hamas longer-range missile inventory was thoroughly depleted and its supportive infrastructure, including launching capabilities were destroyed along with the vast smuggling tunnel networks. It will take at least a year for Hamas to recover, rebuild and be re-supplied. Iran was shocked after the truce began, when it dispatched engineers to the Gaza Strip and discovered that Hamas was no longer capable of playing a supportive role in the event of an Israeli-USA military operation against Iran.

Eliminating the Hamas threat also cut-off Iran's efforts to woo Egyptian support for its cause against Israel. It also gives Egypt a chance to regain control of Hamas and eliminate any Iranian influence as well as shutting off Iran's flow of rockets/missiles into the Gaza Strip.

#2. Eliminate Iran's key ally, Syria and President Bashir Assad, replacing his regime with one that is a Sunni-sect regime allied with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood. This must be done in such a way as to avoid Assad from launching any WMD attacks against Israel and or Turkey. Deploying the Patriot batteries is the first step in achieving point number two in the "war" against Iran. As we understand it, this phase in the war against Iran is already underway. Turkish and Arab ground forces will launch quick strikes in support of Syrian rebels to find and remove Assad from power. Syrian rebels including Al Qaeda-related groups have reportedly agreed to such a move. It is anticipated to take place sometime during December. The U.S. will provide logistical backup support and any technical assistance involving WMD cleanup if needed.  U.S. Special Forces trained in WMD recovery are now on the scene in both Turkey and nearby Jordan. Israeli WMD teams are also on standby in Israel. Additionally, a US Naval force is located just off the Syrian coastline as also a Russian naval force.

Interestingly, Russia's President Putin has arrived in Turkey for talks with Turkey's Prime Minister. Putin is concerned about the Patriot anti-missile defenses while the Turkish PM is concerned about Syria's latest movements of WMD stockpiles and signs that Syria is about to use WMDs for an attack on Turkey.

#3. At perhaps the same time or shortly thereafter, Hezbollah will be dealt with in a joint ground-aerial campaign to destroy Hezbollah's vast arsenal of 50,000 rockets and missiles. This job will reportedly fall to Israel with support from the U.S. and NATO. It may involve the use of small EMP air bursts to prevent Hezbollah from even launching any of its missiles. If all goes well and according to schedule with Syria (and if Hezbollah doesn't make any moves to aid Assad) the war on Hezbollah will likely take place after Israel's general elections on January 22, 2013 and yet before March 1, 2013, which is the deadline given to Iran by the White House to begin cooperating with the IAEA or face military action. At this point in time, if all goes according to plan, Iran would be facing that USA ultimatum with absolutely none of its allies and find itself naked and exposed to defeat.

#4. A "Persian Spring" for  Iran. This would be a revolt by the Iranian civilians against the ruling religious leaders. It  would be assisted by a "special ops" effort of agents from the US/israel and Arab nations to trigger a "Persian Spring" against the religious regime. It would involve the sparking of a civilian uprising, as well as the MEKK revolutionaries, the Kurds and other Iranian tribal opponents of the Iranian regime. Special ops units have already been in place within Iran for the past few years after the failed "Green" revolution of 2009. It would likely start with revolts in the tribal provinces designed to trigger independence movements and break up Iran as a unified nation. Eventually it would lead to an overthrow of the religious regime in Tehran in a matter of weeks or by summer of 2013. Should such an effort fail or stall, a 5th phase would be unleashed.

#5. An allied military campaign led by the U.S. with NATO, plus Sunni-Arab nations along with Israel. It would involve both air and ground operations. Only U.S. special ops forces would be involved in the ground efforts. The bulk of ground forces would consist of Arab and Turkish troops. It would be preceded by an EMP aerial campaign that would instantly knock out all of Iran's communications and electricity nationwide. A surgical team may be introduced into Tehran to locate and capture or kill Iran's ruling Ayatollahs along with elected lawmakers, as well as top military leaders in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Air and missile strikes would then be conducted against Iran's air defenses and missile bases, air and naval bases. Turkish forces would invade northern Iran while Saudi and Arab ground forces swept into western Iran via southern Iraq. There is an outside chance that some U.S. Marine amphibious landings might take place along Iran's southern coastline to take out Iranian naval bases.

Phase #5 would only take place if Phase 4 failed to trigger regime change. Phase 5 would likely begin in the summer, perhaps as early as June but no later than late July or early August.

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More Intelligence Tidbits

Gaza Mini-War Analysis

Iranian military engineers arrived in the Gaza Strip shortly after the cease-fire took effect to inspect the damage inflicted by 8 days of Israeli bombardment. What the Iranians found left them in a state of shock. The Israeli destruction focused on the ability of the Palestinians to launch missiles. This included communications capabilities, transportation and underground launch facilities.

The Iranians found that communications networks were in shambles requiring a total replacement of the communications infrastructure. The smuggling tunnels and underground warehousing of missiles and rockets were destroyed. Almost all of Iran's missile/rocket launchers were destroyed along with underground launch facilities. The problem is that so much underground area was destroyed that it will be difficult to rebuild or replace the underground networks. Damage is so extensive that it will likely take well over a year and perhaps 2 to 4 years to restore the military threat Hamas had become prior to the 8 day aerial war.

Tehran inspectors concluded that Iran has lost a vital allied deterrent against Israel for at least one year.

More Glitches in Iran's Nuke Program

In the past month, Iran's nuclear uranium enrichment program has been plagued once again by technical glitches. The underground facilities at Fordow lost electricity for some unexplained reason. There were strong suspicions of sabotage but Iranian officials kept mum about the problem.

In the past week, it was learned that back in mid-October, Iran's nuclear power plant at Bushehr almost suffered an meltdown and explosion that could have killed a million Iranians. An explosion and fire were averted at the last minute after scientists discovered ordinary bolts in the fuel cells. The entire plant was shutdown and all the fuel rods were removed in order to recover the bolts. It is not known if the bolts were part of a construction error by Russian contractors who built the facility or if a saboteur effort created the problem just before the start up of operations. The problem is fixed for now, but concerns remain over sabotage and further computer virus attacks from the Stuxnet worm. Meanwhile, just when Iran seems to be moving its uranium enrichment production into high gear, unexpected problems crop up delaying the day when Iran could build its first nuclear bomb.

Egypt's New Regional Role

The Obama Administration has big plans in store for Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood once power has been solidified with a new constitution and the switch to Sharia Law. The Obama Administration wants Egypt to be the new leader in the region. The White House hopes Egypt will take the lead in rebuilding Syria's political system and sharing regional power with Turkey. The White House wants these two nations to be the leaders of the Islamic world and prevent Iran from rising to power to unite Islam against Israel and the West. The White House also expects that Egypt will keep the Palestinians under control so that a final peace agreement can be reached with Israel.

UN Recognition of Palestine

The UN's recognition of a non-member Palestinian state is being viewed as a detriment to the peace process, but in reality it won't be a serious factor, once the President's plans for the Mideast and Iran are completed. In fact, once Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are dealt with, the President will be in a position to pretty much dictate terms to the stubborn Palestinians and Israelis on any hang-ups and sticking points. It may well appear as though President Obama is "the man" in Daniel's prophecy who makes a peace deal between Israel and her neighbors. However, we have serious doubts that Obama is or will indeed become the Antichrist.

US B2 Bombers Re-Deployed

We understand that the U.S. Air Force's primary bomber, The B-2 stealth bomber, is being re-deployed in 2013 in something akin to musical chairs. The bomber wing will conduct temporary basing for a few months at a time at various airbases around the world, starting first with basing in the Asian Pacific region, then in South America  and perhaps on to Africa as a showing of the "flag." Eventually the bombers will return to their home base at Whiteman AFB in Missouri, not far from the Kansas City metro region.

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